Football
Tom's Tip Sheet
By Tom Orr
The final week of the pre-bowl season is a remarkable
one, all things considered. There are only nine games pairing full-fledged
Division 1-A teams (all listed below).
And yet, the top four teams are all playing. Seven of the top 10
teams are in action. One game matches a pair of top-10s, while another
pits two top-15s. Both schools named Miami will take the field. Two
traditional rivalries will renew acquaintances, and the last game
of the night might top 100 total points.
Six of the nine games have a chance to directly impact BCS bowls,
including three or more that could have a say about who plays in the
Orange Bowl.
There have been a few weekends this fall with a full slate of games
that weren't nearly this intriguing.
So it's time to put off that holiday shopping for another week, kick
back and enjoy about 15 solid hours of college football. Soak it all
in, because the season's running out... and the long, painful wait
for spring football isn't all that far off.
Last week: 2-3
Overall: 17-15-4
Thursday, December 2
MAC Championship Game
Teams: Toledo (8-3) at Miami, OH (8-3)
Played at: Detroit
Time (TV): 7:30 pm (ESPN)
Line: Miami by 2
Interest: 2
Something to talk about: Bowl lineup
As recently as last year, reaching the MAC championship game was
pretty much the only way a conference team would earn a bowl berth.
In 2003, only two Mid-American teams (Miami and Bowling Green) reached
bowls.
This year, thanks to widespread outcry over last year, a growing
respect for the league, and a lot of major conference teams failing
to qualify for bowls, there's reason to think the MAC could garner
as many as six invitations this year. These two teams will both go
bowling, BG and Marshall are already locked in, and Northern Illinois
and Akron are possibilities as well.
If you're scoring at home, that's as many bowl teams as the Big Ten
and potentially more than the Pac-10.
And if you're not scoring at home, hang in there. Someone will eventually
appreciate you... presumably for your personality.
Saturday, December 4
Teams: #19 Pittsburgh (7-3) at South Florida (4-6)
Time (TV): 11:00 am (ESPN2)
Line: Pitt by 7
Interest: 2
Something to talk about: Worst. BCS teams. Ever.
If Pittsburgh wins, they're headed for the BCS, and a likely Fiesta
Bowl date with Utah. Boy, you've got to love the BCS!
Wait, it gets better. If the Panthers manage to lose this one (and
remember they had to go to overtime to beat D-1AA Furman at home,
lost at home to 5-6 Nebraska and lost road dates at mighty Connecticut
and Syracuse), Syracuse could actually sneak in and steal the Fiesta
Bowl berth, depending on where they fall in the BCS standings.
No matter whether it's Pitt or the 'Cuse claiming that BCS spot,
I don't think you can even make a convincing argument that there's
been a less-deserving team in the history of this dreadful system.
In 1998, Syracuse snuck in at 8-3, including a 21-point loss to a
7-5 North Carolina State team.
In 1999, Stanford appeared in the Rose Bowl with an 8-3 record, including
a 69-17 loss to Texas and a 44-39 home loss to San Jose State.
In 2000, Purdue appeared in the Rose Bowl with an 8-3 record, including
a 30-10 loss to a 5-6 Michigan State team.
But if Pitt ends up in the Fiesta Bowl, that could top those all.
The Panthers have been so lousy at times this year, that Walt Harris'
job isn't completely secure.
The league's other leading candidate is Syracuse, which, depending
on who you ask, is either days or weeks away from firing its coach
because the team has been so inept (losing to Temple, and losing 51-0
to Purdue).
And right now it looks like teams like Texas, Boise State, Georgia,
Louisville, and others will be left out of the BCS.
This system couldn't be designed more poorly if they tried.
Playoff, playoff, playoff.
Teams: #10 Virginia Tech (9-2) at #9 Miami, FL (8-2)
Time (TV): 1:00 pm (ABC-National)
Line: Miami by 7
Interest: 3
Something to talk about: NKOTB
The winner of this matchup between the New Kids On The Block takes
the championship of the new and improved ACC and a BCS bowl bid.
And while there's reason to believe that the 'Canes will be "Hangin'
Tough" at home, I have this sneaky feeling that the Hokies will
have "The Right Stuff" to take home the title.
Yes, they're on the road. And yes, they're coming off a tough win
against a rival, and it's difficult to get up for two big games in
a row. But the Hokies should be able to stay "Step By Step"
with the Canes.
You can dismiss it as a stupid hunch (like the one that Notre Dame
was going to give USC a good game last week) or say that I'm reaching,
simply because I don't like Miami. "Call It What You Want,"
but Frank Beamer, "Baby, I Believe In You."
Okay, I'll stop.
Pick #1: Virginia Tech +7
Teams: #7 Louisville (9-1) at Tulane (5-5)
Time (TV): 2:30 pm (No TV)
Line: Louisville by 29
Interest: 2
Something to talk about: 2005 Big East Champs
Louisville joins the Big East next year, and if they play anything
close to the way they have this season, they will destroy everyone
in their path.
By the way, if you're any kind of college football fan, you already
have a spot on your sofa blocked out for 3:30 pm on New Year's Eve.
That's when Louisville and Boise State are scheduled to square off
in the Liberty Bowl, perhaps the best matchup of the entire bowl season.
If you love offense, that's the place to be.
Teams: Army (2-8) vs. Navy (8-2)
Game played at: Philadelphia
Time (TV): 2:30 pm (CBS)
Line: Navy by 13
Interest: 5
Something to talk about: That nervous pit in my stomach.
Navy has a six-game advantage over the Cadets in their season records.
The Mids have outscored Army 92-18 over the last two meetings.
They're almost a two-touchdown favorite this week.
And yet this game just scares the hell out of me.
Bobby Ross has turned Army into a respectable program again, and
his team put out a tremendous effort against rival Air Force, leading
at the half before fading in the final 30 minutes.
Win or lose, Navy has already locked in to a bowl game (the former
San Francisco Bowl, against New Mexico). Meanwhile, it's a chance
for Army to really brand its season something of a success, and show
that it's turned the corner heading into 2005.
This is almost always an extremely close game (the last two years
being an obvious exception), and I have a feeling it will be this
year, too. Hopefully, the Mids will pull it out.
Pick #2: Army +13
Teams: #1 Southern California (11-0) at UCLA (6-4)
Time (TV): 4:30 pm (ABC-National)
Line: USC by 22
Interest: 2
Something to talk about: See you in South Beach, part one
The Trojans destroyed one rival (Notre Dame) last weekend, and know
they need another win this week to lock up an Orange Bowl berth.
UCLA is... whaddayacallit? Not good.
This probably won't get too out of hand, but look for the Trojans
to take care of business.
SEC Championship Game
Teams: #15 Tennessee (9-2) at #3 Auburn (11-0)
Game played at: Atlanta
Time (TV): 6:00 pm (CBS)
Line: Auburn by 13
Interest: 3
Something to talk about: See you in South Beach, part two
There are two ways this could go.
First, the Tigers could recognize that they need to win, and win
big to have even the remotest chance of leap-frogging Oklahoma and
getting into the Orange Bowl. They could come out, simply shred the
Vols, and coast to a landslide victory.
Or... they could spend all this week listening to their fans, classmates
and the media talk about how they're getting screwed by the BCS. They
could get caught in the "it's always tough to beat the same team
twice in one season" thing. They could just come out flat. And
they could lose this game, blowing any argument for inclusion in the
national championship.
It probably won't happen, but it could.
Teams: #4 California (9-1) at Southern Mississippi (6-4)
Time (TV): 7:45 pm (ESPN)
Line: Cal by 24
Interest: 2.5
Something to talk about: Remember when?
This is the Hurricane Bowl, a game postponed by one of the six billion
hurricanes that hit the southeast this fall.
Cal needs to win to lock up its BCS spot, almost certainly in the
Rose Bowl. They might even need to win with some style.
But here's the thing; Southern Miss isn't a bad team. Yes, they've
lost three of four coming into this one. Yes, they got smoked at home
by Cincinnati. But they're not a bad team.
Remember, Cal has to come all the way across the country to play
this one, and Hattiesburg, Mississippi is a long way from Berkeley
in more ways than just mileage.
This one has me thinking back to another dominating-looking Pac-10
team that traveled across the country to make up a storm-cancelled
game against a weak team from the east.
Remember Miami 49, UCLA 45 back in 1998? The Golden Eagles don't
have to win, they just need to keep it respectable.
Pick #3: Southern Miss +24
Big XII Championship Game
Teams: Colorado (7-4) vs. #2 Oklahoma (11-0)
Game played at: Kansas City
Time (TV): 8:00 pm (ABC-National)
Line: Oklahoma by 21.5
Interest: 3
Something to talk about: See you in South Beach, part three
The Big XII Championship has been the site of some of the biggest
upsets in recent memory.
The 1996 Texas Longhorns, a 20-point underdog, upset mighty Nebraska,
37-27.
The 1998 Texas A&M Aggies, a 17-point underdog, upset unbeaten
Kansas State, 36-33 in overtime.
Last year, the Oklahoma Sooners, a 13-point favorite, got smoked
by Kansas State, 35-7.
The 2004 Oklahoma Sooners remember that, and they know they need
to win with some style this year to make sure they get to the Orange
Bowl.
That's why history won't repeat itself.
Pick #4: Oklahoma -21.5
Teams: Michigan State (5-6) at Hawaii (6-5)
Time (TV): 11:00 pm
Line: MSU by 6.5
Interest: 2
Something to talk about: Get ready for more scoring than...
Well... you can complete that one.
These two teams can both move the ball quite a bit. If Drew Stanton
plays for the Spartans, they'll probably end up with between 300 and
400 yards rushing on the day.
Considering that this MSU defense just gave up more than 30 points
to Penn State, Hawaii could score 50 this week. Just ask Northwestern.
The Rainbow Warriors (I think they're actually just "the Warriors"
now, but I don't care) need to win this one to earn a bowl berth,
likely one in their hometown Hawaii Bowl. This IS Michigan State's
bowl game, so they don't have much to play for.
If Stanton plays the whole game and the Spartans come in with any
interest in winning, they should be able to out-score Hawaii.
If Stanton sits or the Sparties come out flat (or just forget to
leave the beach), then the Big Ten could go 0-2 in the islands this
season.
Bonus Game
Sunday, December 5
Teams: Arizona Cardinals (4-7) at Detroit Lions (4-7)
Time: 1:00 pm
Line: Detroit by 4
Interest: 1
Something to talk about: Big Game Johnny
Boys and girls, let's give it up for John Navarre, starting NFL quarterback!
Well... almost the NFL. It is the Cardinals after all.
Navarre hasn't been active all season, and hasn't taken one snap
this year. And he's starting on the road this Sunday. Would a 27%
completion rate, 146 yards and four interceptions surprise you? Me,
neither.
By the way, Emmitt Smith is hurt, too, and the Cardinals are starting
an undrafted rookie named Larry Croom there in his place. So you've
got a rookie seventh-round pick making his first appearance of the
year at quarterback, and an undrafted rookie starting at running back.
The Lions are absolutely gawd-awful... but even they should be able
to take advantage of this. Just hope Denny Green doesn't yank Navarre
and put in Josh McCown or Shaun King at halftime.
Pick #5: Lions -4
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