Football
Michigan Keys to Victory
By Tom Orr

The Keys to Victory

Michigan will enter Saturday's game as a visitor and about a four-point favorite. That's a rarity in this series, where the home team is almost always favored.

This is the first time since 1995 that the visitor is the underdog; by the way, the home underdog (Michigan) won that game.

But that road favorite status speaks volumes about the perceived talent gap between the schools this year. Michigan has been the often-explosive team with the flashy offense and punishing defense this year, while OSU has slogged through a sometimes uninspired, and occasionally ugly season.

You would therefore think that Michigan should be able to simply cruise to an easy win on Saturday. Of course that's almost never the case in this series, and it likely won't be that way this year, either.

So what are Michigan's three biggest keys to winning?

First, they've got to run the ball and stop the Buckeyes' run. It's a relatively simple formula, and for the last three years, it's an accurate predictor of who's going to win the game. Last year, Michigan outrushed OSU 170-54 and won. Two years ago, OSU outrushed Michigan 140-121 and won. In 2001, the Bucks outrushed the Wolverines 137-117 and won.

This year, it's even more important. Both teams feature first-year starting quarterbacks, who will almost certainly be jittery on Saturday. Getting a good, consistent running game established will take a lot of the pressure off those QBs. If Michael Hart goes for 40 carries and 200 yards, barring something really remarkable (like a plus-4 turnover margin), it's going to be very, very difficult for the Buckeyes to win. On the other side of the ball, Michigan can't let the Buckeyes get a straight-ahead run game going. If OSU hits a couple options to Ted Ginn for 10 or 20 yards, that probably won't kill the Wolverines. If the Buckeyes can ram the ball right at them 30 times for four or five yards a pop, that could change the entire face of the game. The times that OSU's offense has really clicked this season, a good, solid straight-ahead running game has played a big role. But it won't be easy against the Michigan front seven.

The second key is related to the first; get the Buckeyes in third-and-long situations. Michigan wants to make Troy Smith beat them throwing the ball, because except for a few brief stretches, he really hasn't shown an ability to do that consistently. If OSU is facing 3rd-and-8 more often than they're facing 3rd-and-2, Michigan's defense can pin their ears back and go right after the shaky Buckeye offensive line, getting pressure, and likely forcing rushed (read: bad) decisions, and turnovers.

The third thing is they have to avoid the big and needless mistakes. Michigan killed themselves as an even bigger favorite in 2001, turning it over five times compared to just one for the Bucks. If they do that again, they'll probably lose this game. If they don't make any huge mistakes (turnovers for touchdowns, blocked punts, missing field goals) they should win. Michigan doesn't need to do anything extraordinary to win this game. They just have to not lose it.

There are a few other things that would help them do it.

On offense, they've got to convert short-yardage situations. All season long, Michigan has been really dreadful in third-and-short and goal line situations on offense. The line, which is so adept at pulling, trapping and screening has really not shown that it can just line up and blow people off the ball. If the Buckeyes can get this Michigan offense off the field on third downs, that will really help their cause.

Michigan will also probably have to ease Chad Henne into the game early. They need to give him nice, easy throws to start, to get him a little confidence. Then they can try the downfield stuff. He hasn't been spectacular on the road this year, and with the crowd as raucous as it should be, he should be a little rattled on Saturday. If they can get him into a groove, he should be fine. If he starts slow, turns it over and things snowball, he could have big problems.

That's going to be big, because OSU will likely try to load up to stop the run early. Michigan's going to have to throw a little to push the safeties 10 yards off the line and open that run game up. If Michigan can open up the run game and grind out long drives, they can start taking the crowd out of the game, while chewing up time and likely putting up points.

Once Henne gets into the game, he's going to need more than one guy to throw to. Braylon Edwards has been Michigan's big-play guy all year, but if the Wolverines can get something big out of Jason Avant, Steve Breaston, Tim Massaquoi, Tyler Ecker, or someone else, that could help take some of the attention away from Edwards, and eventually give him a chance to make something happen.

On defense, the biggest thing for Michigan is to avoid over-pursuing. They've gotten burned on misdirection plays on a number of occasions this season. That means they're going to have to keep good backside contain on every play, to avoid having an end-around or similar play go for big yardage.

If the Buckeyes line Ginn up on the line of scrimmage, their big, physical corners have to try to jam him. He's not a big guy, and someone like Marlin Jackson can probably push him around a little. It's going to be up to the Buckeye coaches to keep that from happening, either using motion or lining him up as a wingback or somewhere similar.

Michigan's other corners also have to do a good job keeping Santonio Holmes from getting deep. OSU will likely be relying on big plays to score points. Leon Hall and Markus Curry have, at times, been beaten deep. It hasn't happened for the last couple weeks, but they can't let Holmes get behind them.

If you've watched any of Michigan's games this year, you know that their special teams have been very, very unreliable. From missed field goals and extra points, to a blocked punt, to big yardage for opposing returners, the Wolverines have had their problems. They don't have to dominate special teams on Saturday, but they can't get their butts kicked, either. That means no missed field goals or extra points.

With the Buckeye offense spinning its wheels so often this year, OSU will probably be relying on the hidden yardage of kick and punt returns to get good field position, or even score points on the returns themselves. Troy Nienberg has not shown a particularly strong leg, hitting just 14 of 58 kickoffs for touchbacks. Adam Finley is going to be tasked with keeping punts away from Ginn and Holmes. Any returnable kick to either guy is a mistake.

As long as the Wolverines don't have a major crisis in the kicking game, that unit has done its job.

The Michigan offense hasn't been nearly as "gimmicky" as their counterpart from the south, but they do like to run a trick play now and then.

The most common (and barely a trick play at all) is the simple end-around to Breaston, Avant or Edwards, or more complex, a reverse handoff from Hart to one of those same guys. Controlling this is as simple as keeping contain and not over-pursuing. Holding them to 5-10 yards is a win for the defense in most situations.

Michigan also ran a play once earlier in the year where they came out in a bizarre formation with a man standing behind right guard, who handed the ball to Michael Hart through his legs. The play didn't go for big yardage then, but if he can hide behind the linemen and then catch the defense napping, it could be a big play.

Finally, the Wolverines have shown a "diamond" formation, with four receivers split out to the right in the shape of a diamond. So far, they've used it mostly to throw screens to Edwards, but all year I've been waiting for Edwards to throw it back to Henne or Hart. Don't be stunned if you see that Saturday.

The bottom line is this; Michigan doesn't need to do all that much to win. They just need to run the ball, control the clock and move the chains. If they can take the game out of Henne's hands, they'll probably be very happy. The big dangers are turnovers and the big-play ability of the Buckeye offense and special teams.

As long as the Wolverines don't kill themselves, they look like they've got a better-than-average chance of winning, and punching their ticket for another trip to Pasadena.

Tomorrow, I'll take a look at what the Buckeyes need to do to pull the upset.

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