Football
Keys to Victory - Part II
By Tom Orr

The Keys to Victory

It seems like Michigan doesn't have to do anything really extraordinary to win on Saturday. As long as they just run the ball well and don't kill themselves in any other facet of the game, they should be headed for Pasadena.

For the Buckeyes, the task is a little tougher. Simply playing an okay game won't get it done on Saturday. They need to make some things happen to pull off the upset.

The biggest issue is tackling. The Buckeye defense has apparently forgotten how to do it for about the last year. The problems started last year in Ann Arbor and have continued throughout this season. The defense seems to constantly be going for big hits, rather than simply wrapping up.

That just won't work against Michael Hart. He's 5-foot-8 (if that), runs very low to the ground (obviously) and is constantly fighting for more yardage. Simply ramming into him doesn't do the trick. You've got to wrap him up and make absolutely sure he's down. Otherwise, the Buckeye D could be in store for a repeat of the unpleasantness of Tim Biakabutuka's career day. If OSU wants to win, they've got to stop Michigan's rushing attack, and if they want to do that, they've got to wrap Hart up.

The second key for the Bucks is winning the turnover battle. Finishing plus-two would be a good start, plus-three would put OSU in pretty good position, and plus-four or more would likely seal the win. If one of those turnovers went for six the other way, that would definitely help, too.

There's reason to hope that this could happen. Teams have gotten to Henne this year, and he's coughed a few balls up. He's also made some questionable decisions, and if he gets rattled by the crowd... the defense... whatever... he could make those questionable decisions again. Michigan's offense often falls back on the screen pass and short throws when they need to pick up easy yardage, and the Buckeyes have made big plays on screens and short passes a couple times this year, notably Tyler Everett's interception return for a touchdown against Penn State and E.J. Underwood's near interception return last weekend at Purdue. One of those would really help the Buckeye cause this weekend.

The OSU offense hasn't exactly zoomed up and down the field this year, and there's not much reason to expect a 600-yard day on Saturday, either. That means they might only get a few chances in the red zone, and they absolutely must capitalize on them. Field goals are acceptable, but this team needs to get seven points more often than not. If they're kicking field goals over and over again, it's probably not a good sign. OSU had a chance to blow Michigan out back in 1996, and settled for three first-half field goals. They lost 13-9. Two years ago, Michigan had a chance to really put the Bucks behind the 8-ball, but they too settled for three first-half field goals and wound up losing 14-9. Redzone turnovers (especially two of them like last week) will spell instant death for this team.

The fourth major key is the Bucks have to figure out a way to line up and run it at Michigan. Cute little gadget plays are nice as a changeup, but unless the Bucks can take Maurice Hall, Tony Pittman, Lydell Ross, Branden Joe, or SOMEONE and just pound it between the tackles for four yards consistently, it's going to be a day-long struggle. The Michigan offense will almost certainly be able to mount 10-12 play drives a few times. If the Buckeyes are going three-and-out, and getting murdered in time of possession as they have a few times this year, it's a big problem. The offense doesn't have to score 40 points, but they do have to move the chains a few times, give Michigan a long field to work with and give the OSU defense a chance to catch their breath a regroup.

Running against Michigan usually involves figuring out a way to neutralize big Gabe Watson, their nose tackle. If OSU wants to run up the middle, they're just going to have to acknowledge that Watson is very big (likely around 350 lbs.) and very good, and just double-team him. Otherwise, you're going to have a whole lot of holding penalties and a whole lot of runs up the middle for nothing. Teams have also cut-blocked him with some success this year.

Here are some other things to watch out for.

Michigan has been a very slow starter for a lot of the season. They've trailed in eight of their 10 games, and if the Buckeyes can get out to an early lead, they can maybe gain a little confidence, get the crowd worked into a lather and get themselves into a position to balance their offense.

On offense, the Buckeyes will have to move Ted Ginn around and find ways to keep the physical Michigan corners from getting their hands on him. The Wolverine DBs, especially Marlin Jackson, are a physical bunch. Using motion, or lining Ginn up in the backfield could help him get off the line more cleanly. At the same time, you can use that physical Michigan style to your advantage. Teams have thrown quick passes so the ball's in the air while the corner is still bumping. Quite often that'll draw a pass interference call and an automatic first down.

OSU needs to use misdirection to keep the Wolverines off-balance defensively. Anything from a counter draw (which Michigan State and Northwestern both hit big plays on) to "roll right, throw left" passes to people on crossing routes, to the now-popular speed option/shovel pass. Let them use their speed to run themselves out of the play.

They also need to give Holmes a chance to make a play deep. Michigan's corners have been vulnerable to the deep ball at times, either letting guys get behind them or getting flagged for interference. The way the Buckeye offense has played at times, 15 yards would be a heck of a freebie, and give them a much better shot at least to get into Mike Nugent's range.

Finally, on third down, the receivers have got to know where the sticks are, and run at least a couple yards past them. Michigan's defensive backs generally tackle very, very well, and throwing a pass short of the marker and hoping someone breaks a few tackles is an invitation to bring on the punt unit.

On defense, the Buckeyes need to keep an eye on Braylon Edwards. Northwestern had a lot of success by jamming him at the line, then rolling a safety over top. Obviously, you can't do that on every play, but at certain times (like the first play after a change in possession when Michigan tends to go deep to him) it wouldn't be a bad idea.

The Bucks also need to get pressure on Henne, knock him down a few times and maybe force a fumble or bad throw. The problem is, Michigan runs draws and screens so well, you're in real trouble if they out-guess you. That's why zone blitzes, rather than regular "bring the house" blitzes are preferable. Bring the linebackers or corners, but drop a defensive end or tackle into pass coverage.

The defense or special teams really need to either score a touchdown or at least give the offense a short field to work with two or three times. Don't expect a lot of punts to Ginn and Holmes, so it may be up to the kickoff return guys and up to the defense to pick off a pass and do something with it. They definitely need to pick up cheap yardage and steal some good field position with big returns, and conversely, can't let the suddenly healthy Steve Breaston and speedy Grant Mason do the same thing. Having Mike Nugent boot kickoffs for touchbacks will be monumental on Saturday.

On both sides of the ball, Ohio State simply can not kill itself with penalties. The offense isn't putting up very many big plays, and they can't afford to lose any to holding calls, or to have 2nd-and-4 turn into 2nd-and-9 because someone forgot the snap count.

The Buckeyes are also going to need a little help from you. Let's be honest, the crowds have not been spectacular this year. Very rarely has the Horseshoe truly been rocking in 2004, and while some of that has to do with the on-field product, the fans need to play their role as well. That means no more waiting for "hell's bells" on third down or the defenders to wave their arms. There needs to be deafening noise from the moment Michigan huddles up until the time they snap the ball. The 12th man will play a part in trying to rattle Michigan's young quarterback and tailback. The crowd has to help by making it impossible to communicate; causing false starts, delays of game, and by generally making life a living hell for everyone in a white jersey. And it needs to stay that way, no matter what the scoreboard says.

Finally, here are a couple things to look for on Saturday.

We all know that the coaches are burning the midnight oil to find a way to get Ted Ginn the ball in open space. They've faked a reverse to him twice on kickoffs this year. Don't be surprised if they actually hand it to him this week.

Ginn was also a high school quarterback, meaning he can throw it a little. That opens up a number of options, including putting him in the shotgun with five guys split out wide, or a run/pass option or throw-back to Troy Smith on an end-around.

We've also seen that end-around to Ginn quite a bit. What we haven't seen is the Buckeyes faking that handoff and giving it to someone up the middle, or giving it to Ginn and having him give it back to someone (Holmes or Bam Childress, perhaps) on a reverse.

The Buckeyes can't live by trick plays alone, but if they can control Michael Hart, win the turnover battle, and run the ball a little themselves, those trick plays could be enough to put them in a position to win.

The longer OSU is in front, or at least within easy striking distance, the better for the Buckeyes. OSU doesn't have many positions where they're clearly superior to Michigan. But one of the few could be a big one. If the game goes down to the wire and is riding on a late kick, don't be surprised if it falls to Mike Nugent to bail the Bucks out in his last game at the Horseshoe.

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