Football
Michigan Monday
By Tom Orr
Once again, it all comes down to this. Michigan did
its part to make sure the 101st version of the greatest rivalry in
all of sports will have a direct impact on the Big Ten championship.
A win over Ohio State or a Wisconsin loss will send the Wolverines
to the Rose Bowl, while a Michigan loss coupled with a Wisconsin win
over Iowa would likely send Michigan to Orlando.
The Game will once again have a say on who wins the Big Ten championship,
just like it should, and just like it did in 2003, 2002, 2001, 2000,
1998, 1997, 1996, 1995, 1993, 1991, 1990, 1989, 1988, 1986, 1984,
1982, 1981, 1980, 1979, 1978, 1977, 1976, 1975, 1974, 1973, 1972,
1970, 1969, and 1968. That's 29 out of the last 36 years, and it does
not include seasons like 1992 when Michigan had the outright title
locked up before kickoff.
The Wolverines have already clinched at least a tie for this year's
Big Ten championship, thanks to Wisconsin's implosion in East Lansing,
and Michigan's second half explosion at home against Northwestern.
After 30 minutes of uninspired ball, the Wolverines scored touchdowns
the first five times they touched the ball in the second half to turn
nail-biter into a laugher.
What worked for the Michigan offense?
Here's the thing... nothing really worked consistently. Michael Hart
had a statistically impressive day, but outside of one big run during
the first half and a stellar drive to open the second half, Northwestern
really kept him under control for most of the day.
Braylon Edwards had a quiet day (7 catches, 54 yards) and he ended
up the leading receiver. Michigan didn't screen particularly well
or often, use the tight ends well, or benefit from a series of turnovers
or wildly spectacular starting field positions. And yet they put up
42 points and won by more than three touchdowns.
That might be the most frightening thing about this team. They can
roll up impressive yardage and point totals without looking like they're
hitting on anything close to all cylinders.
Michigan flooded the field with three receivers, and had remarkable
success in the short passing game. They also scored a touchdown by
motioning Steve Breaston out of the backfield, having him run a short
stop route and having the slot receiver (Jason Avant) run right past
the slowing corner on a flag route.
Michigan also caught Northwestern on a blitz, hitting a screen pass
to Hart for 20 yards. Normal blitzes are very dangerous against this
team just because they screen it so well. Zone blitzes are usually
a much better choice.
What didn't work for the Michigan offense?
Edwards was quiet, although some of that had to do with a couple
over and under-thrown balls by Chad Henne. Those cost him a couple
chances at long grabs. Northwestern also dedicated two defenders to
him on a number of plays, jamming him at the line and then providing
a safety deep. Edwards had trouble getting off the line, throwing
the timing off on some passes.
Henne seemed to have a problem with the wind early, and missed some
open guys. If you can pressure him with blitzes, you can get to him.
He's not that mobile, and has at times throughout the season shown
a tendency to throw to guys in coverage. Edwards has bailed him out
by taking passes away from corners a few times.
Michigan needs to throw to set up their run game, and didn't do it
successfully at all during the first half of Saturday's game.
Hart finished the first half with 14 carries for 45 yards and touchdown.
But if you took out one play where the hole was plugged, but he cut
back against some overpursuit and ran for a 34-yard score, his numbers
were 13 carries for 11 yards.
What worked against the Michigan defense?
Northwestern ran a version of the counter draw out of a spread formation,
and broke a 68-yard touchdown. It was the same play Michigan State
got two big scores on. The reason it works is that Michigan is very
fast on defense. Normally that's a problem, but if you can sucker
them into running one way (by having your offense all flow in one
direction) and then popping a quick-hitting draw the other direction,
you can let them run themselves out of the play and catch them off-balance.
For the same reason, a similar pass play (a drag route to a tight
end crossing from left to right, with the quarterback rolling right)
also netted a big gain.
Northwestern was able to ram it between the tackles for a few yards
on most plays, but that only works if NT Gabe Watson is off the field
or you can cut block him.
What didn't work against the Michigan defense?
Running wide, especially in short-yardage situations. I can't stress
this enough. If you are just running sweeps without any misdirection,
Michigan's defense is fast enough to beat your guy to the sideline.
If you want to run, you have to run right at them (with the obvious
exception, again, of misdirection plays like end-arounds, reverses,
counters, traps, etc.)
Also, Northwestern fell into the same trap a lot of teams do against
Michigan; throwing third down passes short of the sticks. Michigan's
defense tackles way too well to hope that you're going to make a couple
guys miss and pick up a first down. It might happen occasionally,
but it won't be anything approaching half the time.
Michigan loves to zone blitz on third-and-long and bring CB Marlin
Jackson in, forcing the QB to throw before he wants to. They've done
it all season, and they did it again on Saturday. This ranks right
up there with "Michigan is going to go deep to Edwards on the
first play after a turnover" as things you'll almost certainly
see on Saturday.
How were Michigan's special teams?
Surprisingly good, for a change.
Steve Breaston finally looks like Steve Breaston again after suffering
through a season riddled with injuries. He ran back a punt 67 yards
for a touchdown, ran another back for a 26-yard gain and returned
a kickoff to the 40. With both Breaston and speedy DB Grant Mason
(29.5 yards per return) back on kickoffs, getting touchbacks is a
must.
Garrett Rivas has been shaky all year on kicks, missing five field
goals and four PATs, but he was a perfect 6-for-6 on extra points
on Saturday and didn't attempt a field goal.
The Wolverines broke up a poorly designed fake punt by the 'Cats,
and even blocked a field goal, with Ohio native Pat Massey coming
right up the gut to get a hand on a 35-yarder.
Adam Finley's punts were okay, but not great (four kicks averaging
35.5 yards), and Troy Nienberg had zero touchbacks on seven kickoffs,
including a nasty duck-hook that swerved out of bounds around the
20. That gives returners a chance to make a big play.
What does it all mean?
That Michigan is prone to slow starts, something we've known for
most of the year. The Wolverines have trailed in eight different games
this season but only lost one of them.
That you can help Michigan get off to one of those slow starts if
you can contain Hart and Edwards.
But slow starts or not, this is still a very talented team. They
tend to shoot themselves in the foot from time to time with critical
penalties, and anytime your kicking game is shaky, you're always in
some danger.
It's no surprise that Michigan opened the week as a favorite over
Ohio State. Frankly, I don't think there are more than a couple Buckeyes
(if that) who would start for Michigan's offense. The numbers are
probably closer on the other side of the ball, but there's going to
be a whole lot of talent on the visitors' sideline come Saturday afternoon.
That does not, however, mean that the result is a foregone conclusion.
Michigan has not been great on the road, and Chad Henne and Michael
Hart sure as hell haven't faced anything half as hostile as what they're
going to walk into on Saturday.
Coming up later this week, I'll break down the keys to victory for
each team, as well as some trick plays they've run that you can watch
for... and some new stuff I wouldn't be surprised to see during the
game.
The Road to the Big One
Sept. 4: Michigan 43, Miami (OH) 10
Sept. 11: Notre Dame 28, Michigan 20
Sept. 18: Michigan 24, San Diego State 21
Sept. 25: Michigan 30, Iowa 17
Oct. 2: Michigan 35, Indiana 14
Oct. 9: Michigan 27, Minnesota 24
Oct. 16: Michigan 30, Illinois 19
Oct. 23: Michigan 16, Purdue 14
Oct. 30: Michigan 45, Michigan State 37 (3-OT)
Nov. 13: Michigan 42, Northwestern 20
Nov. 20: at Ohio State
Return to O-Zone
Columns and Features