Football
Tom's Tip Sheet
By Tom Orr
The last full slate of college football action features
some surprise teams, a lot of schools making a push for bowl eligibility,
and a whole lot of heated rivalries.
There's also this little thing going on, just east of the Olentangy
River around 1. But we'll get to that in a minute.
First, let's quickly revisit last week's Tip Sheet performances,
one of the strangest 2-1-2 records in history.
One of the "push" games came when a team took an intentional
safety on the final play of the game, sparing the Sheet a loss. In
that same game (Indiana vs. Penn State) moments earlier, the underdog
had four cracks from the one, and couldn't score the winning (and
covering) points. One of the wins came when a team down by 30 points
kicked a field goal on the final play of the game to cover. In another,
the starting quarterbacks combined to go 11-for-37 for 145 yards,
no touchdowns and one pick. A 24.5-point underdog fell behind by 41,
then scored two late touchdowns, but fell one onside kick away from
another stunning cover.
In other words, what could have been either an almost perfect week
or an 0-3-2 disaster ended up a winning week, and helped slightly
improve the overall record.
Last week: 2-1-2
Overall: 12-10-4
These are the kind of bounces that make football gambling such an
incredibly imprecise science.
Thursday, November 18
Teams: Maryland (4-5) at #15 Virginia Tech (7-2)
Time (TV): 7:30 pm (ESPN)
Line: Virginia Tech by 10
Interest: 2.5
Something to talk about: Big Man on the new Campus
After all the preseason hype swirling around the ACC about how Miami
and Florida State were going to be duking it our for the title, the
team all alone in first place is... Virginia Tech.
Yes, the same Virginia Tech that's been to the Insight, San Francisco,
Gator and Gator Bowls since Michael Vick left campus.
All the Hokies have to do is take care of a punchless Maryland team,
archrival Virginia, and survive a December 4th trip to Miami and they'll
cruise into the BCS.
Okay, so maybe it's not quite a free pass yet. But this week shouldn't
be too tough.
Saturday, November 20
Teams: Michigan State (5-5) at Penn State (3-7)
Time (TV): 12:00 pm (ESPN2)
Line: MSU by 3.5
Interest: 3
Something to talk about: What could have been
I've spent all week listening to the Spartan fans I work with moaning
about how what could have been. If they hadn't blown their huge lead
against Michigan and come out flat and blown another huge lead against
the Buckeyes, they could be packing their bags for Pasadena with a
win this weekend.
Unfortunately, they did blow both of those leads. Now they need to
win this one, then pull out a tougher than you might think date in
Hawaii just to reach a bowl game.
Considering how crappy Penn State has looked for much of the season,
and how downright awesome the Spartan offense has been with Drew Stanton
at the controls, this looks like an easy pick.
But if you've followed the Spartan football program, even from a
distance, you know that they've made a habit out of winning games
they shouldn't, then dumping games they shouldn't.
Last week was definitely one of the former. This could fall into
that second category.
Teams: North Carolina (5-5) at Duke (2-8)
Time (TV): 12:00 pm (No TV)
Line: North Carolina by 5.5
Interest: 1.5
Something to talk about: Basketball season
I'd bet the students aren't camping out to get into this one.
The 'Heels can actually go bowling with a win, which is more than
their three intra-conference and intra-state rivals (Wake Forest,
NCSU and Duke) can say.
All they have to do is get through their archrivals from Durham.
This would have been a really enticing pick, except the Blue Devils
ruined it by upsetting Clemson last weekend, trashing any serious
chance of the Heels overlooking this game, and also probably shaving
3-4 points off the spread.
Teams: South Carolina (6-4) at Clemson (5-5)
Time (TV): 12:00 pm (Jefferson Pilot)
Line: Clemson by 3
Interest: 2.5
Something to talk about: Meet the new guy
There's plenty to talk about in this one, from once-mighty Clemson's
struggle for bowl-eligibility (they lost to Duke last week) to the
Gamecocks' chance to avenge last year's 63-17 whipping in Columbia.
But the most interesting storyline will probably be on a golf course
in Florida around kickoff time. Here's a hint: he'll be wearing a
visor.
There are rumors swirling around the Palmetto State that ol' Lou
Holtz is about to hang up his whistle for good, and that Steve Spurrier
may be the guy to replace him.
Holtz hasn't said what he plans to do, but did offer up one possibility
on Monday. "I see Secretary of State's open."
If this is his next-to-last game (South Carolina is bowl-eligible)
college football's going to miss him.
Teams: Illinois (3-7) at Northwestern (5-5)
Time (TV): 12:00 pm (ESPN-Plus)
Line: Northwestern by 13
Interest: 2.5
Something to talk about: Bye bye, Ronnie.
Speaking of coaches who may be out of the business shortly... Ron
Turner, ladies and gentlemen!
Take a bow, and don't let the door hit you in the butt on the way
out.
Northwestern needs to win their last two (this one and a December
trip to Hawaii to be bowl eligible).
Teams: Indiana (3-7) at Purdue (6-4)
Time (TV): 12:00 pm (No TV)
Line: Purdue by 20
Interest: 2
Something to talk about: So close, but yet so far.
The Hoosiers are so achingly close to being a bowl team this year,
it's almost not funny.
They blew a 20-7 halftime lead at home against Michigan State and
lost, 30-20.
They gave up a tying field goal to Northwestern with 29 seconds left
in regulation and then lost in double overtime.
They blew an 8-point lead with six minutes left, and a two-point
lead with a minute to go, and lost at Illinois.
Last week, they failed to score on four cracks from the one and lost
22-18 at home against Penn State.
If they'd won three of those, they'd be bowl eligible. If they'd
just won two of those, they'd be playing for a bowl game this week.
Instead, it's just another depressing 3-8 season in the making in
Bloomington.
And no, I'm not prepared to discuss (rationally, at least) the reason
Purdue has their bowl bid locked up, so don't ask.
Teams: #2 Oklahoma (10-0) at Baylor (3-7)
Time (TV): 12:00 pm (Fox Sports Net-Regional)
Line: Oklahoma by 34.5
Interest: 1
Something to talk about: Running it up
It's all about style points now for the Sooners. Just winning isn't
enough. They've got to win by huge margins against these lackluster
teams. They didn't do it last week against Nebraska, but they'll get
it done this week.
I've seen all the stats about home double-digit underdogs, but I
don't care.
Pick #1: Oklahoma -34.5
Teams: Iowa State (5-4) at Kansas State (4-6)
Time (TV): 12:00 pm (Fox Sports Net-Regional)
Line: KSU by 11.5
Interest: 1
Something to talk about: Kansas City... Kansas City here I come.
Quick: Name the team that's atop the Big XII North standings right
now? No cheating.
If you answered K-State, Kansas, Mizzou, Nebraska or Colorado...
you lose.
Yup, it's those mighty I-State Cyclones, with a conference mark of
3-3 and and overall record of 5-4. If they win this one and their
home finale against Missouri, Iowa State will represent the North
division against Oklahoma in the Big XII championship game in Kansas
City.
In fact, if they win just the game against Missouri and Nebraska
beats Colorado, the Cyclones will go to the championship game as well.
Or, if ISU wins this one, Missouri loses this week (at home against
Kansas) and Nebraska beats Colorado.
Teams: #15 Tennessee (7-2) at Vanderbilt (2-8)
Time (TV): 12:30 pm (ESPN-Plus)
Line: Tennessee by 13
Interest: 2
Something to talk about: Stadium pictures
Indiana coach Gerry DiNardo was reminiscing about his days at Vandy
during a press conference last year, and said that the Commodores
always took their "stadium picture" during this game.
Why? It was the only time all year that the stadium was actually
full. And yes, Indiana does the same thing when OSU comes to play
in Bloomington.
Are you ready for the most incredible rivalry-related stat of the
week?
In the meeting between these teams in 2000, Vanderbilt's Jared McGrath
scored a touchdown with 3:57 left in the game. It cut the Vols' lead
to 28-26, but Tennessee hung on to win.
Here's the amazing part; that's the last time the Commodores scored
against Tennessee.
In 2001, they lost 38-0. In 2002, they lost 24-0. Last year, they
lost 48-0. Over the last 183:57 of game action between these two in-state
rivals, Tennessee has outscored Vandy, 110-0. That's just part of
a 21-game win streak for the boys in orange.
So of course...
Pick #2: Vanderbilt + 13
Teams: Yale (5-4) at Harvard (9-0)
Time (TV): 12:30 pm (WGN)
No Line
Interest: 1
Something to talk about: Yah wicked smaht!
The Harvard kids are wicked smaht, no doubt, but they can also play
a little.
This is the 121st meeting of the schools, and Harvard has a chance
for just its second perfect season since 1913. (The other was in 2001).
The Crimson has entered this game with an unblemished record 16 times
before and only escaped with that perfect record intact on five occasions.
There's good news for the Yalies, too; they get to leave New Haven
for a few hours.
So they've got that going for them. Which is nice.
Teams: Rutgers (4-5) at Navy (7-2)
Time (TV): 1:30 pm (CSTV)
Line: Navy by 4
Interest: 3
Something to talk about: Battle of bowl teams?
Depending on how the schedule plays out, both of these teams could
end up in bowls. Rutgers would have to win this one and next week
at home against Connecticut. Navy would probably have to do no worse
than splitting their last two (this week and against Army).
That's only amazing if you consider that two years ago, a matchup
of these same teams at this time would have featured a combined record
of 2-20.
This seems like a good time to ask one question of the Mids. HOW
THE HELL DO YOU GET BLOWN OUT BY FREAKING TULANE??? The Green Wave
got smoked by Houston, 24-3, then came out and pimp slapped Navy.
Winning this one would be a nice way to make up for it, but if you're
making me choose between the last two games, I'll take a win over
Army and a second consecutive outright Commander-In-Chief's Trophy.
(Navy will automatically retain it on a tie-breaker, even if they
lose to the Cadets.)
Teams: #3 Auburn (10-0) at Alabama (6-4)
Time (TV): 3:30 pm (CBS)
Line: Auburn by 9.5
Interest: 3
Something to talk about: Roll, Spoilers!
The Iron Bowl will actually have a say in the national championship
for the first time in a decade this week. Back in 1994, 10-0 Alabama
edged 9-0-1 Auburn (then on probation) by a single point, before losing
in the SEC championship game to Florida.
This year, it's the other way around. Alabama is the program coming
off of probation, and the Tigers are the ones with their eyes on the
prize.
This is a chance for the Tide to secure a decent bowl berth as well
as ruin their archrivals' strong season. Sound familiar, Buckeye fans?
The underdog has covered three straight in this series, winning two
of those outright.
Pick #3: Alabama +9.5
Teams: South Florida (4-4) at Cincinnati (5-4)
Time (TV): 3:30 pm (ESPN-Plus)
Line: Cincinnati by 12
Interest: 1
Something to talk about: This time next year.
This is a conference game this fall, and it will be next year, too.
Of course, then both teams will be in the Big East and this could
conceivably have BCS implications.
I tried not to laugh out loud while thinking about that, but couldn't
help it. Sorry.
Teams: Stanford (4-6) at California (8-1)
Time (TV): 3:30 pm (Fox Sports Net)
Line: Cal by 24
Interest: 2
Something to talk about: Lemme ax you something.
With a win, Cal will pretty much lock up a spot in the Rose Bowl
(barring a USC upset or a surprise selection by another bowl) for
the first time since the 1958 season. Since that time, only twice
has this battle for the Ax been settled by more than 24 points.
I'll take my chances with the Cardinal sacking up and showing some
pride against a far superior team. Or maybe Cal will lose points for
running over a trombone player or something.
Pick #4: Stanford +24
Teams: #9 Wisconsin (9-1) at #17 Iowa (8-2)
Time (TV): 4:30 pm (ESPN)
Line: Iowa by 3
Interest: 3
Something to talk about: Pasadena dreamin'
Go Badgers! Buckeye fans everywhere really hope you get to go to
Pasadena!
Okay, some of that has to do with what it'll take to get you there.
In case you've been on Mars, Wisconsin needs to win, and Michigan
needs to lose to get UW back to the Rose Bowl.
Who does Michigan play this week, anyway?
Iowa's good at home, but there's just no way they should be favored
over a Badger team with a good defense (except for last week) and
a decent rushing attack. The only way Wisconsin doesn't cover is if
they can't recover emotionally from last weekend. It could also hinge
on whether they've got a shot at the roses at kickoff time.
Pick #5: Wisconsin +3
Teams: Western Michigan (1-9) at Marshall (5-5)
Time (TV): 4:30 pm (ESPN-Plus)
Line: Marshall by 27
Interest: 1
Something to talk about: Dead man walking
Western Michigan coach Gary Darnell got canned earlier this week,
so it's a true "dead man walking" game, even more than Illinois'
finale.
Marshall could become bowl eligible with a win, although considering
that they're leaving the conference after the year, the MAC probably
isn't in a huge hurry to award them with one.
Teams: Washington (1-9) at Washington State (4-6)
Time (TV): 7:00 pm (ABC-Regional)
Line: WSU by 11
Interest: 1.5
Something to talk about: An apple a day keeps bowl games away
As recently as two years ago, this game had conference championship
implications. Wazzou played in the Rose Bowl in 2002, and the Huskies
were there two years earlier.
This year, the Apple Cup is rotten.
The Cougars haven't won this game since their 1997 Rose Bowl season.
That was long enough ago that "Peyton Manning or Ryan Leaf?"
was still a semi-legitimate question.
They should finally get that win this year, although against the
JV squad from Seattle (and their dead man walking coach Keith Gilbertson),
it won't mean as much as in a normal year.
Teams: Oregon (5-5) at Oregon State (5-5)
Time (TV): 7:00 pm (Fox Sports Net)
Line: Oregon State by 4
Interest: 3
Something to talk about: Hardly Civil
There's more than pride on the line in this meeting of the Civil
War. The winner will be eligible for a bowl, the loser will not.
The home team has won the last seven games in this series, stretching
back to 1997. If that trend continues, Oregon would miss its first
bowl game since 1996.
The Ducks caught a big break this year, missing USC in league play.
By comparison, the Beavers didn't get to play the Trojans' crosstown
rivals from UCLA.
Teams: Florida (6-4) at #10 Florida State (8-2)
Time (TV): 7:45 pm (ESPN)
Line: FSU by 7
Interest: 3
Something to talk about: rehireronzookifhebeatsfsu.com
Ron Zook is done, but he'd love to go out by shoving one straight
up his cross-state rival's tailpipe. So far he hasn't beaten the Noles
in two tries, and the Gators are just 1-5 in their last six meetings
with the boys from Tallahassee.
While this one might do something for Zook's reputation, it could
mean millions of dollars for the Noles. FSU is currently no. 8 in
the BCS, and a win would almost guarantee them of at least an at-large
berth. A loss would turn a possible Sugar Bowl berth into a Gator
Bowl berth, dadgummit.
Anyone else remember when this game was going to overtake OSU-Michigan
as the biggest rivalry of all time and how it was going to have a
big say in the national championship every year and how oh my gosh
I'm hyperventilating just thinking of Gators and Noles!!!11!!1!1!
Yeah... what happened to that?
Teams: #7 Michigan (9-1) at Ohio State (6-4)
Time (TV): 1:00 pm (ABC-Regional)
Line: Michigan by 5.5
Interest: 5
Something to talk about: Is there something interesting about this
one?
I dunno.
How about salvaging an otherwise lackluster Buckeye season?
How about locking up a decent bowl game?
How about finishing with a break-even record in Big Ten play?
How about sending the seniors out as winners, with a 3-1 record against
Michigan and a 20-1 home record over their last three years?
How about sending the Wolverines to Orlando instead of Pasadena?
How about watching Lloyd Carr implode on the sidelines and maybe
snap at another TV reporter, rather than look smug when it's all over?
How about hearing the victory bell one more time this fall?
And if you're still looking for a reason to hope the Bucks pull the
upset, think about this; do you really want to watch Braylon Edwards
and Marlin Jackson strutting around the Horseshoe with Roses clenched
in their teeth after the game?
The Bucks had better come out ready to kill... and you (and everyone
else in your section) better bring your A-game to the stands as well.
See you Saturday.
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