Football
Tom's Tip Sheet
By Tom Orr
Sorry. I would have had this column written much earlier,
and done much better on my picks last week, except someone did something
that threw me off.
See... the schedule-maker gave my opponent an unfair advantage. And
the officials screwed us. And the clock operator screwed us. And the
crown of the field was too high. And the crowd was too loud. And our
team had to go through security.
I know this would probably carry more weight if I didn't ALWAYS whine
about something when things didn't go my way, but I just thought you
should know that, as always, it's not my fault.
Any questions?
Reporter: Are you concerned that your opponent's
touchdown to end the half might give them momentum?
Now what kind of stupid question is that?
Reporter: Any idea why people think you're an obnoxious,
whiny ass?
None at all. It's just a totally unfair representation. Just remember,
it's not my fault.
By the way, I hope they don't make me go through security at the
airport when I fly out to the west coast next month. That would completely
throw my entire trip off, and go a long way toward explaining why
my program always gets shelled out there.
Last week: 3-2
Overall: 15-12-4
Tuesday, November 23
Teams: Kent State (4-6) at Central Florida (0-10)
Time (TV): 7:00 pm (No TV)
Line: Kent by 8
Interest: 1
Something to talk about: One way to go from here
This is a season George O'Leary will probably want to leave off his
resume.
No wins in 10 tries, although the Knights have been competitive in
home league games, losing by just two, five and one point.
When you're a big home underdog to a 4-6 Kent State team... that's
not a real good sign.
Teams: Bowling Green (8-2) at Toledo (7-3)
Time (TV): 8:00 pm (ESPN)
Line: BGSU by 5
Interest: 2.5
Something to talk about: Bowl play-in
The winner of this one will likely end up in a bowl game, while the
loser could very well sit at home for the holidays. While the MAC
bowl tie-ins (Detroit, Mobile, San Jose) are not exactly Miami, or
even San Antonio, they're better than nothing.
If Toledo wins this one, they take the MAC West title, and will play
Miami in the conference title game. If Bowling Green wins, Northern
Illinois will play for the MAC title, but the Falcons will grab a
bowl bid somewhere anyhow. That's especially true now that Clemson
and South Carolina have pulled themselves out of the picture.
The loser might have to hope a number of teams on the "bowl
bubble" (Nebraska, Northwestern, Arkansas, Syracuse) lose their
games this week, opening up more at-large bids.
Thursday, November 25
Teams: Connecticut (6-4) at Rutgers (4-6)
Time (TV): 10:00 am (ESPN2)
Line: Connecticut by 3
Interest: 1.5
Something to talk about: 13 hours of football
Why would you schedule a college football game to start at 10 in
the morning on Thanksgiving Day? Because you want to make sure your
game is over with before the Lions-Colts game kicks off.
If they time this out right, you should be able to switch over from
the end of this one, right to the start of the Lions game, then to
the Cowboys game, then to the "Backyard Brawl", and have
football on TV for a solid 13 consecutive hours on Thursday.
Yes, this game is ugly, and the Lions-Colts game should be over before
you can even load your plate with stuffing and mashed potatoes, but
13 hours of football is 13 hours of football. And we can all be thankful
for that.
Teams: #21 West Virginia (8-2) at Pittsburgh (6-3)
Time (TV): 8:00 pm (ESPN)
Line: WVU by 5
Interest: 3
Something to talk about: Brawlin' for a title
This traditional rivalry has a real meaning this year. If WVU wins
and Boston College loses to Syracuse, the Mountaineers are going to
a BCS game.
If WVU and BC both lose, the Big East ends in a four-way tie for
the title (those two schools, plus Pitt and Syracuse would all finish
4-2). And believe it or not, Pitt would have the inside track for
the BCS berth (I'll explain later).
The Mountaineers have won the last two in this series, the Panthers
won two in a row before that, and the 'Neers won two in a row before
that.
Friday, November 26
Teams: Colorado (6-4) at Nebraska (5-5)
Time (TV): 12:00 pm (ABC-National)
Line: Nebraska by 3
Interest: 4
Something to talk about: See you in San Antonio?
If the Buffs win this one and Iowa State loses their game, Colorado
would go to the Big XII championship game, get slaughtered by Oklahoma,
and possibly end up in the Alamo Bowl.
Also worth thinking about; a Nebraska loss would send the Huskers
to their first bowl-less season since 1968, and their first losing
season since 1961. If that Nebraska bowl streak gets snapped, Michigan
would have the longest bowl streak in the country.
Go Huskers.
Teams: #14 Louisiana State (8-2) at Arkansas (5-5)
Time (TV): 2:30 pm (CBS)
Line: LSU by 4
Interest: 2
Something to talk about: Bowl bubble
Arkansas is one of the "need a win to get in" teams playing
this weekend. A victory would send them to a crappy bowl game.
The Hogs have been really solid at home all year, winning three games
decisively, and taking two good teams (Texas and Georgia) down to
the wire before losing by two and six points, respectively.
This is LSU's first road game since October 9th. They've lost two
roadies, and squeaked out a win in the Swamp during that last trip.
Here's betting they'll start slow away from Tiger Stadium.
Pick #1: Arkansas +4
Teams: #18 Arizona State (8-2) at Arizona (2-8)
Time (TV): 3:00 pm (Fox Sports Net)
Line: ASU by 14
Interest: 1.5
Something to talk about: Playing for pride
The Sun Devils are probably looking at a bid to the Holiday Bowl
with a win. The Wildcats are already looking at next year.
But this is a rivalry game, and ASU hasn't been spectacular on the
road, winning competitive games against Oregon and Northwestern, and
getting slaughtered at Cal and USC by a combined score of 72-7.
Mike Stoops should have his boys fired up and ready to "bear
down" against their rivals.
Pick #2: Arizona +14
Teams: #22 Texas A&M (7-3) at #6 Texas (9-1)
Time (TV): 3:30 pm (ABC-National)
Line: Texas by 10.5
Interest: 4
Something to talk about: See you in San Antonio? Part deux.
The Horns need a win to keep their BCS hopes alive, while the Aggies
are also in the running for the Alamo Bowl.
Here's something to think about: a Texas win would likely move Big
XII teams up a spot in their bowl games, so instead of facing the
fourth-best Big XII team in the Alamo Bowl, the Bucks might get to
play the fifth-best instead.
With so many of the conference's teams still playing, it's impossible
to know which teams those might be, but it would almost certainly
improve OSU's chances of winning its third-straight bowl game and
ending the season on a two-game win streak for the second time in
three years.
Saturday, November 27
Teams: Kentucky (2-8) at Tennessee (8-2)
Time (TV): 12:30 pm (Jefferson Pilot)
Line: Tennessee by 23.5
Interest: 1.5
Something to talk about: That's Rich!
Now that Ron Turner is out at Illinois and Ron Zook is gone from
Florida, Kentucky's Rich Brooks seems to be the next coach with his
head on the chopping block.
He's 2-8 this year, including a home loss to Ohio University (a team
so bad they just fired their coach) and went 4-8 last year.
Brooks' hiring was pretty much universally dismissed as a panicked
move by a school that had nowhere else to turn, and he hasn't exactly
done anything this year to merit another season. But his players are
standing behind him.
On the other sideline, Phil Fulmer is already gearing his team up
for the SEC championship game and a rematch with Auburn.
That spells "emotional underdog verses complacent favorite"
to me. But I sure would love to see a 24-point line instead of 23.5.
Pick #3: Kentucky +23.5
Teams: Syracuse (5-5) at #17 Boston College (8-2)
Time (TV): 1:00 pm (ABC-Regional)
Line: Boston College by 11.5
Interest: 3.5
Something to talk about: Champs or chumps?
Speaking of coaches who are about to call Mayflower... Paul Pasqueloni,
ladies and gentlemen! Take a bow, Paul!
Here's the funny thing; this guy is about five days from getting
kicked to the curb, and yet he's also one win away from a bowl bid
and a share of the Big East title. Ah, yes... life in a crappy conference.
As mentioned above, a Pitt win over West Virginia and a Syracuse
win in this one would turn the Big East title into a four-way tie.
The tie-breaking procedure involves taking the head-to-head records
between the four teams (Pitt and Syracuse would be 2-1, BC and WVU
would be 1-2). Then, whichever team (Pitt or Syracuse) finished with
the better BCS ranking would get the conference's BCS bid. That would
likely be Pitt, despite the fact that Syracuse beat them head-to-head.
Now how big do the near-miss against Florida State and the completely
disgraceful loss to Temple look?
Teams: East Carolina (2-8) vs. NC State (4-6) at Charlotte
Time (TV): 1:00 pm (No TV)
Line: NCSU by 21
Interest: 1
Something to talk about: Banged up almost-Bucks
NC State OL Derek Morris (who signed to play at Ohio State, but left
before appearing in a game) and WR Richard Washington (who verbally
committed to play at OSU, but whose mommy wanted him closer to home)
are both hurting this week.
Morris has a bad ankle, while Washington is nursing a sore knee.
Fortunately, they'll have plenty of time to rehab those, since they
won't need to get ready for a bowl game. Between that, last year's
exhilarating Tangerine Bowl appearance and two losses to the Buckeyes,
you've got to think they're both loving life in Raleigh right now.
This one's big enough to not merit TV coverage.
Teams: #16 Virginia (8-2) at #11 Virginia Tech (8-2)
Time (TV): 1:00 pm (ABC-Regional)
Line: Virginia Tech by 4
Interest: 3.5
Something to talk about: Virginia Tech's BCS chances
The Hokies control their own BCS destiny, needing only a win here
and in the finale at Miami to win the league outright.
This is only the second road game Virginia has faced against good
competition. They lost to Florida State, beat a mediocre Georgia Tech
team and throttled Temple and Duke.
Before last year's Virginia win, Frank Beamer had owned this rivalry,
winning four in a row.
Teams: Missouri (4-6) at Iowa State (6-4)
Time (TV): 1:00 pm (ABC-Regional)
Line: ISU by 4
Interest: 4
Something to talk about: See you in San Antonio? Part trois.
You can pretty much take everything I said about Colorado and say
it again here.
A Cyclone win would put them in the Big XII championship game, where
they'd get the "fresh fish" treatment from Oklahoma. After
that, they'd have an outside shot at an Alamo Bowl appearance.
Remember how this was going to be the year Missouri really asserted
itself in the North Division? What happened with that?
Teams: Mississippi State (3-7) at Mississippi (3-7)
Time (TV): 2:00 pm (No TV)
Line: Ole Miss by 6.5
Interest: 1
Something to talk about: Rotten Eggs
This is the first time since 1996 that neither Mississippi or Mississippi
State will finish with a winning record.
That, combined with the fuss over the Monday Night Football intro,
made this year's Egg Bowl way too sexy for TV.
Teams: Grambling State (5-5) vs. Southern (8-2) at New Orleans
Time (TV): 2:00 pm (NBC)
No Line
Interest: 1
Something to talk about: Halftime
Recently, the Bayou Classic has been one of the more lopsided rivalries
around. Southern is 10-1 against Grambling, dating back to the 1993
season. But the football really isn't the story here; it's just a
pleasant diversion to give the marching bands a chance to catch their
breath before halftime.
You probably don't care about the game, but should flip over to it
around 3:30 just to see two of the best bands in the nation.
Incidentally, the Southern football team would clinch a spot in the
SWAC Championship game with a win.
Teams: Cincinnati (6-4) at #7 Louisville (8-1)
Time (TV): 2:30 pm (ESPN2)
Line: Louisville by 18.5
Interest: 2
Something to talk about: Dantonio bowling?
With a win, Cincinnati would be in pretty good shape for a bowl bid.
Even if they lose, they're still bowl-eligible.
That Mark Dantonio is a pretty good coach.
By the way, I don't think there's a coach in the country that wants
to play Louisville in a bowl game.
The Cardinals still have an outside shot at the BCS if Texas loses
to Texas A&M. Then, they'd just have to jump Georgia and Miami,
both of whom have losable games left. You could, conceivably, have
two mid-majors (Utah and Louisville or even Boise State) in the BCS
this year.
Teams: Georgia Tech (6-4) at #8 Georgia (8-2)
Time (TV): 3:30 pm (CBS)
Line: Georgia by 15
Interest: 2
Something to talk about: Flops
This was supposed to be Georgia's year to shread people in the SEC,
and while an 8-2 season is nothing to dismiss, it's certainly not
what the folks in Athens had in mind.
The Techsters just got destroyed at home by Virginia, and were spanked,
51-7 the last time they played between the hedges. UGA has three wins
in a row in this rivalry.
Chan Gailey (7-5, 6-6, and 6-4 in three years with the Jackets) needs
to get his act together quickly.
Teams: #10 Boise State (10-0) at Nevada (5-6)
Time (TV): 7:45 pm (ESPN-Plus)
Line: Boise State by 26
Interest: 2
Something to talk about: BCS implications?
The Broncos are even more of a BCS longshot than Louisville, but
it's not completely impossible.
This is the game where the majority of the gambling public jumps
on the Boise State bandwagon, and it's time for the Tip Sheet to jump
off.
A 26-point road favorite? Please.
Here are Boise State's home margins of victory: 58, 19, 1, 18, 17,
66 and 41. Pretty impressive, right?
Here are their away margins of victory: 16, 3 and 7. And those weren't
USC, Oklahoma and Auburn. How about UTEP, Tulsa, and San Jose State?
Pick #4: Nevada +26
Teams: Notre Dame (6-4) at #1 Southern California (10-0)
Time (TV): 8:00 pm (ABC-National)
Line: USC by 22
Interest: 3.5
Something to talk about: Luck O' The Irish
Notre Dame has looked good in big games this season, knocking off
Michigan at home and Tennessee on the road. Yes, they've dumped some
clunkers as well (Boston College, Pitt, Purdue and BYU) but they've
been decent when the chips were down.
USC just needs to win by one to lock up a spot in the Orange Bowl,
so there's not much chance of the Trojans coming out and really working
hard to roll it up.
Remember a couple weeks ago how I just had a feeling that Notre Dame
was going to play well as a big underdog in Knoxville? I'm getting
the same feeling here. Not a win, but a decent showing and maybe a
14-point loss.
Pick #5: Notre Dame +22
Teams: Northwestern (6-5) at Hawaii (5-5)
Time (TV): 11:00 pm (No TV)
Line: Northwestern by 6
Interest: 3
Something to talk about: The road to Detroit goes through Honolulu
The Windy City Pretty Kitties need to win this one to qualify for
a bowl game. But is it really worth it?
Forget the extra practice for a moment. If you were a Northwestern
football player, would you lock yourself in a hotel room studying
film this week, just to give yourself a chance to spend the holidays
in Nashville or Detroit? Or would you maybe, just maybe, soak up a
little sun? Most teams seem to choose the second option.
Consider this: the Rainbow Warriors have covered the last three times
a BCS-conference team visited the islands late in the year.
It would be nice for the Big Ten to put seven teams into bowls this
year, but this one is far from a gimme.
Look for a shootout in this one, including a career day from Noah
Herron.
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