Football
Tom's Tip Sheet
By Tom Orr
The Tip Sheet is resilient, my friends.
It bounced back from a dreadful 1-4-1 performance to close out October, and posted a solid 3-1 mark against the spread last week, to open November. As coaches love to say "they always remember November," and the month is already off to a great start.
Well... except for the Buckeyes' incredible string of injuries, the potential return of Kyle Orton as well as the reemergence of a certain imbecile from the past who I can only assume is trying to get himself killed. Other than that, it's all good.
This week, the best game is way down south, and the Buckeyes face another tough road game against an opponent who could be anything from completely demoralized to virtually unbeatable, depending on their mental state and the health of their star quarterback. Meanwhile, Michigan seems poised to roll into Columbus rested from an idle week and a date with a cupcake (albeit one that beat the Buckeyes earlier this fall).
Last week: 3-1
Overall: 10-9-2
Wednesday, November 10
Teams: TCU (4-4) at #14 Louisville (6-1)
Time (TV): 7:30 pm (ESPN2)
Line: Louisville by 24.5
Interest: 1.5
Interesting Angle: Nice knowin' ya
Both of these teams are bidding adieu to CUSA after this season, and heading off to greener pastures. Texas Christian is joining the Mountain West Conference, while Louisville is heading to the Big East.
Here's another little nugget for you; in the only three meetings between these teams, Louisville has never won or even covered the point spread.
TCU has a really shaky defense, and Louisville has a really good offense. The Cards should score a lot of points, but it probably won't be enough to cover this monster spread.
Pick #1: TCU +24.5
Thursday, November 11
Teams: #12 Florida State (7-2) at N.C. State (4-5)
Time (TV): 7:30 pm (ESPN)
Line: FSU by 7
Interest: 3
Interesting Angle: Chuckie's Oh-fer
C-Cup Chuck is on the verge of losing all five of his big games this year (against OSU, rivals North Carolina and Clemson, and ACC bigwigs Miami and FSU). No amount of lift and separation is going to make up for that.
Twice already, I've been burned by picking the Pack in these rivalry games. No more.
Pick #2: FSU -7
Friday, November 12
Teams: Southern Miss (5-2) at Memphis (5-3)
Time (TV): 8:00 pm (ESPN2)
Line: Memphis by 5.5
Interest: 1
Interesting Angle: Bearcat victims
Both of these teams have a rather undignified thing in common; they got absolutely mauled by Cincinnati. Memphis lost 49-10 at UC on October 23rd. Southern Miss got the fresh fish treatment at home, 52-24 last week.
Maybe Mark Dantonio will stick around at Cincinnati for a while after all.
It's too bad we're not doing the "game sponsor" thing this week, because this would have been a perfect fit for MCI's old "friends and family" phone plan. Because those are the only people who are going to care about this one; the friends and close family of the players.
Teams: Hawaii (4-4) at Fresno State (5-3)
Time (TV): 10:00 pm (ESPN)
Line: FSU by 18
Interest: 2
Interesting Angle: Timmy Chang, superstar
Hawaii's quarterback is a record-setter. He's now thrown for more yardage than any other quarterback in Division 1-A history, has more completions, more total yardage and even more interceptions.
Unfortunately, he and his teammates aren't very good when they're playing away from home. They lost 69-3 at Boise State a couple weeks ago, as Chang threw four picks.
This one will definitely end up closer than that, but the Warriors probably won't win.
This will be worth watching solely to say that you saw Chang play during his record-breaking career.
Saturday, November 13
Teams: Northwestern (5-4) at #9 Michigan (8-1)
Time (TV): 12:00 pm (ABC-Regional)
Line: Michigan by 13.5
Interest: 3
Interesting Angle: Look-ahead?
The Wolverines are trying to keep their Rose Bowl hopes alive. The Windy City Pretty Kitties are trying to keep their Any Bowl hopes alive.
Michigan needs to win this one and next week in Columbus. Northwestern needs to win two of their last three (this week, home for Illinois, at Hawaii). Two of those three are likely wins. This is not one of them. Regardless, they're going to Hawaii anyway, so I'm not sure how much allure a return trip to the Motor City Bowl is going to hold.
Northwestern's best chance is to hope Michigan gets caught looking ahead to the game in Columbus. I thought that was a real possibility last year and it didn't happen.
This year, they're playing Northwestern in Ann Arbor and the Bucks aren't much to look forward to.
Look for Michigan to take care of business.
Pick #3: Michigan -13.5
Teams: #19 Iowa (7-2) at Minnesota (6-4)
Time (TV): 12:00 pm (ESPN)
Line: Minnesota by 3
Interest: 3
Interesting Angle: Free fallin' Part 1
The game for the pig is always somewhat heated, but this year's renewal could spell the difference between a New Year's Day bowl and something much less desirable for Iowa. It could also mean the difference between Nashville and Detroit for the Gophers.
Minnesota is definitely a card-carrying member of the "dead man walking club." Their 5-0 start has imploded into a 1-4 finish, and the Gophers haven't beaten Iowa for three years.
They also haven't lost at home all year. Iowa has been great at home, but decidedly mediocre on the road.
This would be a very tempting upset pick, assuming Minnesota was an underdog. Which they're not. So never mind.
Teams: Penn State (2-7) at Indiana (3-6)
Time (TV): 12:00 pm (ESPN-Plus)
Line: Penn State by 4
Interest: 3
Interesting Angle: Free fallin' Part 2
Didn't you used to be Penn State? The Lions are on the fast track to nowhere right now, on a six-game losing streak and 0-4 away from Beaver Stadium. They're the only Big Ten team without a conference win.
And somehow they're favored on the road.
Yes, Indiana lost at Illinois last weekend, but the Hoosiers held an eight-point lead going into the fourth quarter in that one, took Northwestern to double-OT, and lead Michigan State by 13 points at halftime. They're not that far from being a 6-3 team, and let me just say it one more time, they'll probably be a bowl team next year.
This year, they're good enough to not lose to Penn State by more than four at home.
Pick #4: Indiana +4
Teams: Syracuse (5-4) at Temple (1-8)
Time (TV): 12:00 pm (ESPN-Plus)
Line: Syracuse by 9
Interest: 1.5
Interesting Angle: Bowling for Pasqueloni
Syracuse's (essentially) lame duck coach, Paul Pasqueloni can get his squad eligible for the postseason with a win here over lifeless Temple.
The 'Cuse is playing without star RB Walter Reyes, but should still have enough left over to pluck the Owls one last time as a league opponent.
Teams: Marshall (5-4) at Bowling Green (7-2)
Time (TV): 12:00 pm (No TV)
Line: Bowling Green by 10
Interest: 2
Interesting Angle: Home sweet home.
The Falcons have been almost unbeatable just west of I-75, going 20-1 at Doyt Perry Stadium since 2001.
Bowling Green is also scoring a lot of points on a fairly regular basis, averaging 43 a game, compared to just 23 for Marshall (albeit against better competition).
BG should win, but I'm not quite sold enough to give 10 points to Marshall.
Teams: #4 Wisconsin (9-0) at Michigan State (4-5)
Time (TV): 3:30 pm (ABC-Regional)
Line: Wisconsin by 7.5
Interest: 4
Interesting Angle: Miami dreamin' vs. Free Fallin' Part 3
The Badgers are looking for all the world like they'll be this year's version of the 2002 Buckeyes, winning with good defense and just enough offense to get by. They're not getting a whole lot of respect in the polls right now, but considering the team just ahead of them (Auburn) plays a very losable game, they could move up almost by default.
Meanwhile, the Sparties are in a tailspin, losers of two devastating games in a row. They need to circle the wagons and win their final three games just to make it to a bowl. The good news is the last two (at Penn State, at Hawaii) are winnable, and just like Northwestern, they get a trip to Hawaii either way. The bad news is, they've got to cowboy up and beat Wisconsin this week.
This is a classic sandwich game for the Badgers, a road trip against a so-so opponent, smooshed between two rivalry games (Minnesota, Iowa). They haven't been dominant on the road by any measure, although they are 3-0. There are a lot of reasons to take the points here. But I can't.
For one thing, MSU is playing their backup QB against a swarming, play-making defense. Also, the Spartans quit at the very end of last weekend's game, their coach imploded in the post-game press conference and just looking at their players after the game, you could tell that they were just D-U-N.
This is the kind of game that you wait all year to pick against the Badgers... but I'm not going to do it now.
Teams: #5 Georgia (8-1) at #3 Auburn (9-0)
Time (TV): 3:30 pm (CBS)
Line: Auburn by 5
Interest: 4.5
Interesting Angle: Dawgs as spoilers
This was supposed to be Georgia's year to win it all, but a little slipup against Tennessee turned it into yet another "wait 'till next year" in Athens.
Now, they get a chance to play spoiler on the road in the prettiest little village... yadda yadda yadda.
This is the 108th meeting between these teams, making this the south's oldest rivalry.
Georgia has won two straight in the series.
I have no real insight either way.
Teams: Nebraska (5-4) at #2 Oklahoma (9-0)
Time (TV): 7:00 pm (Fox Sports Net)
Line: Oklahoma by 29
Interest: 2
Interesting Angle: Past and present
One of these teams has beaten the other in eight of their last nine meetings. Here's a hint: it's not the one favored by more than four touchdowns. Nebraska won the last meeting (in 2001), and eight of the last nine, but that was back when they actually fielded a Division 1-A football team.
With the Sooners coming in off two straight emotionally-draining games (close wins over Oklahoma State and Texas A&M) this is a classic letdown game.
OU is so much better right now than the Huskers, it's just ridiculous. But the Huskers don't have to win, they just have to lose by four touchdowns or less.
On paper it's not nearly that close, but with the Sooners' tanks on "E" it should be on the field.
Pick #5: Nebraska +29
Teams: Ohio State (6-3) at Purdue (5-4)
Time (TV): 3:30 pm (ABC-Regional)
Line: Purdue by 4
Interest: 5
Interesting Angle: Mojo Risin' vs. Free Fallin' Part 4
Remember less than a month ago when it looked like the Buckeyes might miss a bowl game and the Boilermakers were not only national title contenders, but also had a surefire Heisman finalist at quarterback? Seems like a lot longer than that, doesn't it?
OSU has all the momentum coming into this game, but Ross-Ade is a dangerous, dangerous place for a road team.
This one will probably hinge on two questions: will Kyle Orton play (and play up to standards) and will Purdue figure out a way to keep the ball away from Ted Ginn and Santonio Holmes?
If you're into stats and trends, here's one; Purdue is just 4-12-2 against the spread over the last 18 years in the game before they play Indiana.
Finally, here are two reassuring thoughts heading into Saturday. First, the Buckeyes have a huge, huge advantage in the kicking game, where Mike Nugent is one of the conference's best, and Ben Jones is... not.
Second, the pressure is basically off the Buckeyes, whose bowl destination is much more contingent on their home finale than this one. Meanwhile, the Boilermakers are in a flat spin, trying desperately to pull out of it. They don't want the finale against their in-state rivals to be a "must win" for a bowl game.
If all else fails for the Buckeyes, I'd just chuck a pass up in the end zone on fourth down. You never know what might happen.
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