Ohio State (7-0) owns an overwhelming 64-12-5 record over Indiana (4-3). Saturday's match up looks likely to follow the road laid by numerous Buckeye teams of the past.
The Buckeyes have won thirteen straight in this series, with their last loss coming in 1987.
1987 is suddenly a popular year in Bloomington, because until last week's victory over 13/15th ranked Iowa, the last time the Hoosiers had beaten a Top 15 team was in 1987.
With last week's win, Indiana has now won back-to-back Big Ten games for the first time since 2001.
In its history, Indiana is 0-13 against the number one ranked team in the nation. The last such matchup for the Hoosiers was in 1998, when the Buckeyes beat them 38-7. Indiana is 0-4 against Ohio State when the Buckeyes are ranked number one.
Ohio State has won fourteen games in a row, which is the longest active streak in the nation. This is the twentieth Buckeye team to ever start 7-0. (Only fourteen made it to 8-0.)
The Buckeyes have scored at least 24 points in fourteen straight games.
Ohio State now stands at 58-8-1 all-time when ranked number one.
When Indiana Has the Ball
As amazing as it may sound, right now, Indiana is only two seven-point losses away from already being bowl eligible. An inexplicable 35-28 loss to Southern Illinois and a tough 14-7 loss to Connecticut are all that is keeping Indiana from being 6-1.
Those two losses came in the Hoosiers' first four games. Since then, head coach Terry Hoeppner has thrown the entire offense over to redshirt freshman quarterback Kellen Lewis.
Lewis didn't play in the first game and didn't get his first action until late in the first quarter in game two. When he came in, the Hoosiers were already down 14-0 to Ball State. He led the offense to 17 second-half points to come from behind and beat the Cardinals 24-23.
That was enough to get him the start in game three against Southern Illinois. And while his offense put up 28 points, the defense gave up 35.
After that, Terry Hoeppner went back to junior Blake Powers against Connecticut. Powers proved ineffective, and he split time with Lewis. The Hoosiers were trailing 14-7 in the second half when Lewis twice led Indiana just shy of the red-zone before turning the ball over on a fumble and an interception. After that, Lewis was benched for the game and the Hoosiers couldn't get back on the scoreboard.
It was probably shortly after that game that Hoeppner decided to throw whatever caution may be left to any old wind that would take it. He put Kellen Lewis in the starting lineup and the Hoosiers have responded with a 2-1 record in their last three games. Included in those victories were two of Lewis’ three fourth-quarter game-winning drives this season.
On the season, he's completing 53.4% of his passes, so he's far from a finished product.
He's very mobile, but still looks to throw the ball while moving around. In the Hoosiers' last two games, against Illinois and Iowa, Lewis averaged 278 yards of total offense.
Expect the Buckeye defense to throw a few different things at him to try and confuse him. Lewis is careful with the football--at least so far. He has thrown 93 consecutive passes without an interception.
If he doesn't look off the safeties, Buckeye free safety Brandon Mitchell will probably have a big day. He may even reach the end zone on an interception like he did last year against the Hoosiers.
Linebacker Curtis Terry will most likely be sent on more than a few blitzes to try and get Lewis off of his timing.
The Hoosiers like to employ various zone-read plays and bootlegs. Don't be surprised to see middle linebacker James Laurinaitis or a defensive end heading upfield on certain formations in anticipation of the bootleg.
A match up on the interior to watch for is right tackle Charlie Emerson against defensive ends Vernon Gholston and Jay Richardson. Last year, Emerson (6'5" 266) was a defensive end, actually starting a few games along the way. Emerson has started every game this season, so he obviously hasn't been terrible, but you have to think that this is a severe mismatch and both ends for the Buckeyes look to be in for an active day.
Last week, two freshman started on the left side of the line. That probably won't be the case this week, but there will be a few rotations. The Hoosiers start true freshman Rodger Saffold at left tackle and everything that was just said about the mismatch with Emerson applies to Saffold as well.
Hoeppner is very high on his young line, but they still have some work to do. Hoosier quarterbacks have been sacked fourteen times so far this season.
When Kellen Lewis has time, he will look for (and find) James Hardy. Last week against Iowa, Hardy had eight catches for 104 yards and three touchdowns. At 6'7", Hardy presents a distinct mismatch. Expect Indiana to try and match up Hardy with Buckeye cornerback Antonio Smith, who stands 5'9", as much as possible.
Indiana has a bunch of young receivers, and they have a lot of potential. But they are overmatched this week.
It must not go unsaid that defensive tackle Quinn Pitcock is tied for second in the conference in sacks with seven. There are few more disruptive forces in college football than Pitcock. In fact, the only more disruptive force may be weather. The rankings would probably look this way: 1) Weather; 2) Quinn Pitcock; and 3) Big Ten refs.
With Pitcock's partner in grime David Patterson out again senior Joel Pentonwill be in the starting lineup for a second consecutive week. Since the Hoosiers have trouble running the ball against average opponents, they have no chance of running against the Buckeye front four.
Indiana employs a running back-by-committee. No Hoosier player has yet to carry the ball more than thirteen times. Former receiver Marcus Thigpen starts at running back. He is the fastest player on the team, reportedly running sub-4.4s. Josiah Sears is the bruiser, and freshman Demetrius McCray is the future.
Where Indiana has an advantage over most teams is in the special teams.
Marcus Thigpen is second in the country, averaging 37.0 yards per kickoff return. He has returned three kickoffs for touchdowns. Buckeye cornerback Kurt Coleman is becoming something of a special teams wizard, so it will be interesting to see who gets the best of who in this match up.
If kicker Ryan Pretorius is kicking off again this week, something will need to be done to contain Thigpen.
And they don't limit their touchdown returns to just kickoffs, cornerback Tracy Porter has an 86-yard punt return touchdown to his credit.
Tyson Beattie punts again this year for the Hoosiers, and after a slow start to the season, he's been very impressive over the last few weeks. He's punting the ball high and pinning teams inside the twenty-yard line routinely.
Sophomore Austin Starr handles the place-kicking and he's made 7-of-9 field goals this season, including the game winner as time expired against Illinois. He has, however, missed two of his 22 extra point attempts. Starr only reaches the end zone on kickoffs a quarter of the time, so expect Ted Ginn to get a shot or two at a return. And provided no Hoosiers turn out to be defenseless, he may have something in store for you.
When Ohio State Has the Ball
The Hoosiers are giving up 29.1 points per game to their opponents. There's a pretty good chance that the Buckeyes could do that in the first half. Against Illinois, the Hoosiers allowed 252 yards of offense in the first quarter alone. In fact, Indiana is being outscored in the first quarter 74-35. In that same quarter, the Buckeyes are outscoring opponents 59-10.
Expect the Buckeyes to go to the air early and often. Quarterback Troy Smith and Ted Ginn have combined for eight plays of over 50 yards in their time together. That number will go up on Saturday.
Ted Ginn (36) and Anthony Gonzalez (34) are second and third, respectively, in receptions in the conference. Matching up with them will be a trio of cornerbacks. Tracy Porter is the big play corner. He has three interceptions on the season and leads the conference with 1.43 PBUs per game. Leslie Majors and Chris Phillips are the other two corners. They will rotate, just as they have with their starting duties.
The Hoosiers run a hybrid 4-2-5 like we saw last week against the Spartans. However, the Hoosiers call their linebacker/safety half-breed the "Buck". Josh Bailey is the Buck in this defense, and to some surprise, he leads the team in tackles for loss with 7.5. He's fifth on the team in tackles, second in PBUs, and first in quarterback hurries and fumble recoveries.
Bailey's versatility is telling, but against the Buckeyes he may prove to be a man without a position. At 6'1" 220, he's too big to stay with any of the Buckeye receivers, but he will rarely come out of the game. The Hoosiers will have to go to an extra defensive back when the Buckeyes are showing four receivers because Bailey will basically be a linebacker playing in coverage. Expect the Buckeyes to run the ball with Antonio Pittman very successfully in the four receiver sets, since they'll be doing it against, essentially, a dime defense.
And if the Hoosiers do not bring in an extra defensive back, Troy Smith will throw for 200 yards in the first half.
Whatever Indiana chooses to do on defense, the Buckeyes will exploit it and use their own schemes against them. And, of course, there will be many times when the Hoosiers' schemes don't matter, because the Buckeyes are simply going to line up and do whatever they want.
Whether the Hoosiers want to be aggressive or passive, Troy Smith will have plenty of time to throw. The Hoosiers have ten sacks on the season, with defensive end Kenny Kendal leading the team with 2.5. With right tackle Kirk Barton nearly back to full strength and left tackle Alex Boone beginning to assert his dominance, Kendal and bookend teammate Jammie Kirlew should be fairly neutralized.
Senior free safety Will Meyers (46) and freshman strong safety Austin Thomas (42) lead the team in tackles. They won't be able to cheat up to the line of scrimmage to stop the run, so when Antonio Pittman does get to carry the ball, he should routinely get four or five yards before he even encounters a defender.
Even though Pittman has gone a couple of games without gaining 100 yards, he has scored a touchdown in twelve-straight games, which is the longest such streak in the nation.
He may not get 100 yards this week either, but it would again be due to a lack of carries due to too much offense much too early. Though with the Hoosiers' penchant for coming back, perhaps Pittman will still be getting some carries after 35 points have been put up on the board.
Then again, after seeing Adrian Peterson's injury, maybe he won't.
After last week, Ted Ginn now has six punt return touchdowns in his career, making him the Big Ten's career leader in that category. This week, he'll have ample opportunity to approach the career I-A record of eight. However, the Hoosiers are only allowing five yards per punt return.
Speaking of punting, A.J. Trapasso continues to be solid. He probably won't be too active in the first half, but he may want to stretch sometime around the middle of the third quarter.
As mentioned above, if Aaron Pettrey is still not able to kick off, Ryan Pretorius will handle them. Of Pretorius' sixteen kickoffs, only three have been touchbacks.
Pettrey continues to be solid on all placements, however. The only field goal he's missed since the Texas game was a 53-yarder in the rain against Penn State. He's also still perfect on extra points, making 30 of 30.
How It'll End Up
As mentioned, the Buckeyes have scored 24 points or more in fourteen straight games. They could get shut out in the second half and still extend that streak to fifteen.
Troy Smith will throw for three (or four) touchdowns in the first half.
Ted Ginn will have two of those.
Antonio Pittman will extend his touchdown streak to thirteen games.
Rob Schoenhoft will get some time this week. He will even throw a pass or two.
Quinn Pitcock will get three more sacks, but probably only be credited for two.
Brandon Mitchell will have an interception.
James Hardy will be shut down when Malcolm Jenkins is on him. When Jenkins is not on Hardy, there will be somebody there with Antonio Smith or Donald Washington to make sure Hardy takes a hit anytime the ball is near him.
Terry Hoeppner has never been shut out, so there will be no shut out predicted this week.
Ohio State 42 - Indiana 10