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Ohio State vs. MSU Preview by Tony Gerdeman |
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Though Ohio State and Michigan State have only met 37 times prior, the history is a volatile one.
Ohio State and Michigan State have played six times when Ohio State has been ranked #1 by the AP. The Spartans are 2-4 on those occasions.
Overall, Michigan State is 3-13-1 when playing the #1 ranked team in the nation.
In the series history, the Buckeyes hold a 25-12 advantage over the Spartans, including five-consecutive wins.
Michigan State's last victory over the Buckeyes came in 1999, winning 23-7.
Overall, Michigan State is 8-20 against the Buckeyes when Ohio State has been ranked in the Top 25.
The Spartans have lost six consecutive games against Top 25 opponents, though they are 9-5 against the Top 10 in their last 14 attempts.
The Buckeyes come into this game with 25-consecutive regular season wins, which is a school record. They have also won 17 consecutive Big Ten games, which ties an Ohio State record. The Big Ten record is 19, held by Michigan from 1990-92.
Ohio State is 64-9-1 when ranked #1 in the nation.
When Michigan State Has The Ball
Michigan State runs multiple formations, and will be able to run the ball out of all of them.
The Spartans are second in the conference (and ninth in the nation) in rushing, averaging 242.7 yards per game. Michigan State employs two backs and uses them for distinct purposes. Together, Javon Ringer (133.1 ypg) and Jehuu Caulcrick (71.3 ypg) have rushed for 1,431 yards and 19 touchdowns. Ringer will start and the Spartan staff would like to get him 18-25 touches, including receptions. On short-yardage situations, the 6'0" 255-pound Caulcrick will get the ball, and he rarely gets denied. Caulcrick leads the conference in scoring at 11.1 points per game, so expect to see him receive nearly all of the carries near the goal-line. Both players will run inside and out, so don't expect Caulcrick to be running dive plays all day long. Likewise, don't think that Ringer can't have success off-tackle.
The Ohio State defense is second in the nation in rush defense, allowing only 62.8 yards rushing per game. If the Spartans’ rushing numbers aren’t triple that, then they will have a tough time getting the victory on Saturday.
The interior of the defensive line has been a bit banged up for the Buckeyes, but this will probably be the healthiest they have been in weeks. Of the eight players in the two-deep on the defensive line, seven of them have started at least once this season. There is plenty of experience and talent, and this will be their biggest test of the season.
Collectively, the Ohio State linebackers are playing their best football of their careers, and coming off of (essentially) a bye week last week, they should be well-rested. After the success that Kent State had rushing last week, it's safe to assume that the Buckeye defense will come out excitable and irritable.
After free safety Anderson Russell went down with an injury last week, it wasn't known how long he would be out. As it stands now, he is expected to start, and his health will play a key role in this game. As stout as the run defense is for the Buckeyes, there will still be instances where Russell and strong safety Kurt Coleman will need to make plays in space against the run. Javon Ringer will find his way past the linebackers at some point in the game, and Russell and Coleman need to be there to meet him.
Caulcrick and Ringer aren't the only areas of concern for the Buckeye defense. Wide receiver Devin Thomas is second in the nation in all-purpose yardage, averaging 212.4 yards per game. Thomas is averaging 98.6 yards receiving per game, 22.9 yards rushing per game, and is averaging 31.4 yards per kickoff return.
Thomas (6'2" 218) will not only get the ball via the pass, he will also carry it 3-5 times per game on end arounds, pitches or reverses. Because of his size, he doesn't run the ball like a receiver, he runs it like a tailback. He is fast, strong and will break tackles if the defenders don't come at him with serious intentions.
Thomas will move all over the field and be in constant motion. Spartan quarterback Brian Hoyer will frequently fake the end around and instead hand the ball off to Ringer or Caulcrick, and because of the threat Thomas provides, he'll take safeties and linebackers with him, leaving a clear path for Ringer or Caulcrick.
Cornerbacks Malcolm Jenkins, Donald Washington and Chimdi Chekwa will need to make sure they tackle Thomas on first contact, because if he breaks free, he will run for a while.
They will also run quick screens to Thomas while he is in the slot. He will then take the ball and run down the sideline, needing only one block to gain twenty or more yards.
Thomas isn’t Brian Hoyer’s only weapon. Tight end Kellen Davis will prove a tough match-up for any linebacker that wants to run with him. Davis already has three touchdown receptions on the season. Also, Javon Ringer is the second-leading receiver on the team, averaging over three receptions per game. The Spartans like to throw flares or quick screens out wide and let Ringer make something happen away from the scrum of the offensive and defensive lines.
On the season, Hoyer is 115-188 for 1,476 yards and has thrown eleven touchdowns and three interceptions in seven games. Hoyer has some mobility, but prefers to stay in the pocket when permitted. They will roll him out as well, but don’t expect him to keep the ball. Also, any read-option plays generally go to the running backs.
Javon Ringer and Devin Thomas may also take some direct snaps. Plays like this have given the Buckeyes trouble over the years when Penn State’s Derrick Williams and Michigan’s Steve Breaston have done it.
With Devin Thomas is averaging 31.4 yards per kick return this would appear to be a bad match-up for Ohio State. It will be important for A.J. Trapasso to reach more than just the endzone on kickoffs.
Michigan State doesn’t really offer much in the way of punt returns, as Terry Love has returned 12 punts for an average of 6.6 yards per return.
Spartan place-kicker Brett Swenson has had a bit of a shaky year. He is 7-12 on field goals this year, missing two field goals under 29 yards and three over 40 yards. He is 33-34 on extra points.
Michigan State has also successfully executed a fake field goal this season, so the Buckeyes will be keeping that in mind as well.
When Ohio State Has The Ball
The Buckeyes are outscoring their opponents 70-2 in the first quarter, and their recent history of jumping out early has produced great rewards.
They’ll have that same opportunity this week. In three conference games, Michigan State’s defense is giving up 37.3 points per game.
After getting most of last week’s game off, running back Chris Wells needs to be ready for twenty carries this week because keeping Michigan State’s offense off of the field will be a high priority.
Success for running backs against this Spartan defense isn’t unprecedented, as they have allowed three 100-yard rushers this season.
The Michigan State offense gives many different looks, and the defense is no different. The Spartans are basically a 4-3 defense, but on passing downs they may only have one or two down-linemen. It’s not unusual to see defensive end Jonal St. Dic as the only man in a three-point stance and five or six defenders standing up looking to find seams amidst the blockers. At times they’ll bring everybody except the secondary in that alignment. Other times, they’ll drop most of the defense back and get after the quarterback with just three linemen. It will be the most unconventional look this offensive line has seen and they will all have to play well to keep plays from being blown up.
But as daunting as the scheming seems, there’s still the 37.3 points per game allowed that comes back home to roost.
The Buckeyes may choose to come out throwing in this game, as that seems to work of late. The Spartans allowed Northwestern quarterback C.J. Bacher to complete 38 of 48 passes for 520 yards, so Todd Boeckman should be able to find some receivers.
The pass defense for the Spartans has playmakers, but like Spartan teams of recent past, they can fall victim to their own lapses.
Free safety Travis Key and strong safety Nehemiah Warrick are two of the hardest hitting defenders in the conference . Key is the hardest-hitting Spartan despite his size (5’10” 185). He makes plays in the passing game and the running game. Warrick is mainly an intimidator and an alligator-arm inspirer. Free safety Otis Wiley has had a rough year, but his athleticism carries him a long way. Despite the talent at safety, there are coverage issues downfield and the middle is a good place to be, as long as Boeckman doesn’t hang his receivers out.
Michigan State starts freshman Chris L. Rucker at cornerback, and though he has good size (6’2” 185), he is still just a freshman. Look for Todd Boeckman to go at Rucker whenever the opportunity arises.
With receivers Ray Small and Brian Hartline becoming more involved in the passing offense, Brian Robiskie’s numbers are dropping. This is actually a good thing. With three viable weapons out wide for the Buckeyes, the defense can’t focus on just one player. Because of this, Robiskie will start finding the endzone again soon.
Cornerback Kendell Davis-Clark leads the Spartans in tackles with 46. He also has three sacks, so watch out for him on the blitz.
As a team, Michigan State is second in the conference in sacks with 29. Defensive end Jonal St. Dic has eight sacks and the Spartans’ other defensive end, Ervin Baldwin, has 4.5.
If Todd Boeckman has time to throw, he will find open receivers. But time will be the key. Also, when the Buckeyes are in passing situations, watch for the Spartans to line up the interior line about a half-yard back of the line of scrimmage in an effort to get a bit of a running-start on the pass rush—or a head-start in dropping back on the zone blitz.
After Brian Hartline’s punt return touchdown last week, things may finally be turning around for the Ohio State return game, although the problems with the kick returns seem to be more about opportunity than execution.
The Spartans are allowing 23.2 yards per kick return, so as long as the opportunity is there for the Buckeyes, this looks like it could be a good week for returns. Perhaps we will see running back Brandon Saine involved in another reverse at some point.
Place-kicker Ryan Pretorious continues to handle his placements very well; he is currently second in the conference, making 85.7% of his field goals (12-14).
How It’ll End Up
The Spartans have the best offense in the Big Ten, scoring 42.3 points per game in conference play.
Yes, the Buckeyes went to Purdue with similar accolades adorning the Boilers and shut them down, but those numbers came via the pass. The Spartans’ numbers come via the run, and the run doesn’t get affected by a shaky quarterback and a pass rush.
The Buckeyes need to get up early on the Spartans and take the running game out of the equation as much as possible. If this happens, the Buckeyes can then key on Hoyer and won’t have to worry about the running game. So look for the offense to come out pushing the ball early on.
Then, once the Buckeyes are up 21-7, they will run, run, run and run Chris Wells.
It’s a very simple formula.
Ohio State 37 – Michigan State 17
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