Ohio State vs. Purdue

By Tony Gerdeman

Ohio State and Purdue will meet for the 50th time this Saturday, and they'll do it at night.

It will be the second time these two teams have met at night, with the first coming at Purdue in 1986. The Buckeyes won that game 39-11.

It will also be the eighth time the two schools have met while both have been ranked. Ohio State is 4-2-1 in the previous seven meetings.

Ohio State holds the edge in the series with a 35-12-2 record against the Boilermakers, though Purdue has won two of the last three in West Lafayette.

Joe Tiller comes into this game with a 2-4 record against Ohio State and is 12-33 against ranked opponents as head coach at Purdue. He is 7-10 against ranked opponents at home. Tiller is also 2-5 against top five teams, however, he has lost four straight. While at Purdue, Tiller's teams have played in twelve night games, going 7-5 overall and 1-3 at home. Their lone home win came against Toledo.

Ohio State's all-time record against ranked opponents is 119-100-12. The record on the road against ranked opponents is 33-39-7. On the road in the Big Ten it gets a bit worse, as the Buckeyes are 27-33-5.

Jim Tressel is 3-1 against Purdue with his lone loss coming in the two teams' last meeting in 2004. Tressel is 25-9 against ranked opponents at Ohio State and 5-4 against ranked opponents on the road.

This will be the second time the two schools have met on October 6th, with the first time coming in 1984. On that day, Purdue beat the 2nd-ranked Buckeyes 28-23 in Ross-Ade Stadium.

Purdue is 2-0 all-time when ranked 23rd in the AP Poll, which they are currently. However, they are 1-4 against Ohio State when the Buckeyes are ranked 4th in the AP Poll, which they are currently.

When Purdue Has The Ball

Purdue is averaging 495.8 yards per game so far this season, so when they have the ball, they will try to advance it with haste. Purdue is averaging 16.4 points in the first quarter this season and the Ohio State defense has yet to give up a point in any first quarter yet. Something may or may not have to give. Purdue has scored in all twenty quarters so far this season. Something will definitely have to give here.

Quarterback Curtis Painter is throwing for 308 yards per game and he'll throw the ball to anyone anywhere, and he'll do it out of various sets. Purdue will run some read-option, and Painter will keep the ball on occasion, but they prefer to pass the ball.

They will run multiple-receiver sets and Painter will throw short, he'll throw long, he'll throw to the sidelines, and he'll throw over the middle. He doesn't really care where his receivers are, as long as he thinks they're open. And they usually are.

This game will provide the biggest test of the season for the Ohio State defense. They will be in a nickel defense for the vast majority of the game and every defensive back on the field will need to have a good tackling night or else Purdue could cause some very big problems.

Fortunately for the Buckeyes, their secondary is the strength of the defense and they are all very sound tacklers. If they can keep the plays in front of them and make Purdue remain consistent--especially on third down--things should work out well for the defense. And the deeper into Buckeye territory the offense gets, the less room they'll have to work with. Purdue struggled in the red zone against Notre Dame, only scoring three touchdowns in seven trips, so there is definitely precedent here. However, prior to that game, they had scored touchdowns on 17 of their previous 22 trips.

Painter's main target will be receiver Dorien Bryant. Bryant is averaging eight receptions per game, though he is only averaging 11.2 yards per reception. Cornerbacks Malcolm Jenkins and Donald Washington need to limit his yards after the catch, as will the safeties, since he'll be running routes all over the place and will probably match up with every member of the secondary at some point.

Outside, the Boilermakers have two taller receivers in Greg Orton (6'3" 199) and Selwyn Lymon (6'4" 215). They both excel in making plays on the football in single coverage. The size mismatch that they usually pose won't be as evident against Ohio State's size at cornerback.

And while the secondary is worried about Bryant, Orton and Lymon, tight end Dustin Keller will run down the middle of the field and beat linebackers all game long. Keller is a mismatch against most linebackers and Painter will look for him in the redzone and on third downs.

The Ohio State front four will have to get pressure on Painter and that's not an easy thing to do. For the season, the Boilermakers have only given up four sacks, though Notre Dame did get to him twice, so that is somewhat telling.

Purdue will also run some rollouts to keep the pocket moving. Painter won't simply be a stationary target. He can have severe bouts of inaccuracy, however, and he will try to force things that aren't available. If the Ohio State defense can capitalize on Painter's mistakes, it should only serve to put more pressure on Painter, thus causing more mistakes.

However, it's not all about throwing the ball with Purdue, because they can run it as well. Running back Kory Sheets is averaging 103 yards rushing per game and has scored five touchdowns this season. His long carry is only 23 yards, but he is very capable of going the distance. As a team, the Boilermakers are averaging 186 yards rushing per game.

With the continued improved play of linebackers Marcus Freeman and James Laurinaitis, the Buckeyes should be able to handle the Purdue running game, provided the defensive line continues to play as well as they have. Ohio State is only allowing 55 yards rushing per game this season, so the Boilermakers will have an uphill battle.

The Buckeyes must also watch the reverses and end arounds. Purdue also likes to throw to the backs on wheel routes, so whoever picks up the running backs out of the backfield must be ready to run in coverage.

An area where Purdue would seemingly have a distinct advantage is in the return game. The Buckeyes have struggled in kick coverage all season long, and on Saturday they face a team that has two players who have returned kickoffs for touchdowns already this season. Dorien Bryant is averaging 32.4 yards per return on his 13 attempts. Desmond Tardy has only returned two kicks, but one of them went 95 yards for a touchdown. Pooch kicks probably would not be a bad idea here.

Bryant is also extremely dangerous as a punt returner, averaging 11.5 per return to this point. Tardy has also returned two punts and has averaged 20.5 yards on those two returns. Not punting would not be a bad idea here.

Place-kicker Chris Summers had a rough year last year but he has bounced back this year and has been tremendous. He has made 70 extra point attempts in a row and his only two missed field goals were from over 40 yards out.

When Ohio State Has The Ball

Purdue is giving up four yards per carry, so the Buckeyes should have success running the ball. Obviously the Boilermaker defense will be geared up to stop the run initially, so they should be susceptible to the pass, particularly that of the play-action variety. (Although Notre Dame passed for 377 yards against this defense, proving that the threat of a running game isn't exactly a necessity in order to throw the ball against Purdue.)

A lot of people today think you have to pass in order to open up the run, and this really shouldn't be a problem for the Buckeyes. Purdue is giving up 257 yards passing per game and quarterback Todd Boeckman should have plenty of time to throw. Defensive end Cliff Avril is the only Boilermaker with more than one sack.

When Boeckman does throw he may want to look downfield because cornerbacks Terrell Vinson and Royce Adams have both been beaten deep this season, most recently against hapless Notre Dame. Vinson is actually the team's leading tackler with 34 tackles on the season, 29 of those have been solo. This is indicative of a lot of completions his way, though he is also brought off the edge to make plays in the backfield, so don't be surprised to see some corner blitzes as Defensive Coordinator Brock Spack tries to find a way to get to Boeckman.

Royce Adams is a true sophomore from Cleveland Glenville and has the makings of one of the better cornerbacks in the conference, but he is still a year away. This is his second year starting, so he has plenty of experience even at this early stage.

Wide receiver Brian Robiskie is averaging 106 yards receiving this year and has caught six touchdown passes already. He is averaging 21.2 yards per catch and his game is tailor-made to attack this defense.

If the Buckeyes can run the ball and force the safeties to cheat, Robiskie should have another great game in single coverage.

Receivers Brian Hartline and Ray Small should be able to find room to run. Hartline will also be facing one of Vinson or Adams and could just as easily get deep as Robiskie. And though an effective running game would be helpful, it won't be necessary, as Notre Dame showed.

The wildcard on offense will be Ray Small. Small's emergence can take this offense to another level. More than just a guy for a defense to keep an eye on; he is becoming a player that a defense needs to concentrate on. He is a lot like Dorien Bryant from Purdue, but faster. Expect to see his role in the offense continue to increase each week.

And when all of this passing has opened up the running game, running back Chris Wells will continue to rip off fifteen-yard runs left and right. (And middle.) Wells gives the Buckeyes a tailback who doesn't necessarily need open running lanes to get yards. The Buckeyes should be able to do better than the four yards per carry that Purdue gives up.

The Boilermakers have good linebackers, but the defensive line doesn't give them much help. Cliff Avril has three sacks on the season, and as a former linebacker, he is fast and athletic, but can be neutralized if you run right at him.

The playmaker on defense is former running back Anthony Heygood. Heygood is the strongside linebacker and he is frequently in the offensive backfield and is a very good open-field tackler. Expect to see him all over the field Saturday night.

While it's not quite up to the level of the Boilermakers‘, the Buckeyes' return game is on the verge of being very good. With Ray Small's inclusion, there is now another weapon added to the arsenal and it is only a matter of time before he takes a punt back for a touchdown.

The long-snapping on punts and kicks continues to be a concern and seemingly every kick is an adventure now. However, once the ball actually meets a foot, things usually turn out fine. The Buckeyes will need to be extremely careful where and how they kick on Saturday as the game could come down to one missed--or made--tackle.

How It'll End Up

The first half may resemble a poor man's shootout as both teams should be able to score early on, but this being the Ohio State offense and defense, there can't be too much scoring.

As long as Chris Wells doesn't tweak anything this week, there should be no reason he doesn't rush for 100 yards for the fifth week in a row. Purdue doesn't really have an answer for him and he should shine very bright on the evening stage.

Todd Boeckman may have his best game of the season this week. He leads the Big Ten in passing efficiency and it's not because of dumb luck. He will have plenty of time and the few times the Boilermakers blitz, he should still have time to dump the ball off.

Purdue should have some short fields on offense because of the return game so they won't have to go far to get into scoring position. However, the Buckeyes will be able to turn most of those trips into field goals.

Brian Robiskie will have at least one touchdown this week, though it may not be of the highlight variety.

Ray Small will do something that makes you think you see a #7 on his jersey.

And the Buckeyes will once again step up on the road at night and secure a victory.

Ohio State 34 - Purdue 19

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