Ohio State vs. Wisconsin Preview By Tony Gerdeman

On Saturday, Ohio State and Wisconsin will meet for the 74th time.

The first meeting was held in Madison in 1913 and the Badgers came away with the 12-0 win. In fact, the Badgers won the first three meetings between the two schools and the Buckeyes didn’t get a win against the Badgers until 1916.

Despite those early losses, however, the Buckeyes now hold a commanding 51-17-5 series lead all-time. Ohio State is also 23-10-2 all-time when playing the Badgers in Madison.

While the Buckeyes have had great success against Wisconsin, Ohio State head coach Jim Tressel has not shared the same good fortune. The Badgers are the only team in the Big Ten with a winning record (3-2) against him since his arrival in 2001.

Wisconsin comes into this game with a 16-game Big Ten home winning streak which dates back to a loss to Iowa in November of 2005. In fact, Iowa holds the last two wins in Camp Randall Stadium from a Big Ten visitor, winning also in 2003.

The last time the Buckeyes came to Camp Randall Stadium they did so as the defending National Champions and brought in a 19-game winning streak. They left losers of a 17-10 weather-scarred battle that was ultimately decided in the final minutes.

Jim Tressel comes into this game with a 4-3 record in Big Ten road openers. He is also 9-5 against ranked teams on the road in his tenure.

Ohio State is 36-40-7 all-time on the road against ranked teams.

Wisconsin is 27-1 at home since 2004.

When Wisconsin Has The Ball

The Badgers’ first choice would be to run the ball. Their second choice would be to run it again. If the Buckeyes can force the Badgers into their third choice, then good things will happen for the defense.

The offense starts with junior running back P.J. Hill. This is Hill’s third season carrying the load, and as you would expect, he carries it well. He is currently averaging 112.2 yards rushing per game with four touchdowns in four games. Hill gets the bulk of the carries, but the Badgers have depth at tailback so he will get some time to rest throughout the game. The coaches still obviously trust Hill more than young tailbacks John Clay and Zach Brown, so expect to see more of Hill in crucial situations as he will run where he is supposed to or pick up the defender he is assigned to.

Many Badger fans have been clamoring for redshirt freshman John Clay to see the ball more, and for good reason. With just 29 carries on the season, he is second on the team with four rushing touchdowns. His 6.6 yard per carry average is 1.7 yards better than Hill’s 4.9 yard average.

Clay has more speed than Hill and more moves. He doesn’t lose momentum as quickly as Hill does and he can get back up to speed quicker as well, so when Clay runs into a pile, he’ll either move it or look for another way out. Hill, on the other hand, tends to simply wait until he is tackled when he runs into a scrum. The key for the Buckeyes will be to make sure the front seven provides said scrum.

Ohio State should be playing more of a base defense this week on first and second down so expect to see weak side linebacker Ross Homan involved in a lot of tackles. Offensive lines seem more concerned about getting a body on middle linebacker James Laurinaitis, so Homan should be able to roam free quite a bit.

On third downs, however, the Buckeyes will want to bring in a fifth defensive back in order to deal with tight end Travis Beckum who should be healthy this week after playing just the fourth quarter last week due to injury. Preferably, the Buckeyes would bring in cornerback Donald Washington, as he would be a better coverage choice than safety Jermale Hines. Washington is one of the top cornerbacks in the conference, and might just be the neutralizing factor against Travis Beckum.

Wisconsin’s number one target so far has been their other tight end, Garrett Graham. Graham has eleven receptions in three games but missed last week’s game. He is still a bit banged up but is practicing. The coaches are hopeful that he will be able to go against the Buckeyes. Expect him to play, as this game is too big to miss.

Receivers David Gilreath and Kyle Jefferson haven’t quite had the seasons that were expected to this point but much of that is due to quarterback Allan Evridge’s inconsistency.

Evridge is completing 58% of his passes and throwing for 188 yards per game. He has thrown four touchdowns and three interceptions. Evridge has serious bouts with inaccuracy at inopportune times, and much of the time it has to do with the pressure that he receives. Against Michigan, he was sacked four times and pressured relentlessly. The pressure forced him into 17 incompletions in 40 attempts and two interceptions.

Wisconsin had trouble combating Michigan’s edge attack via defensive end Brandon Graham and blitzes. That would seem to be a viable plan of attack for the Buckeyes as well. The Wisconsin offensive line is as experienced as any, but they have trouble with speed. The Buckeyes can provide that speed with defensive end Thaddeus Gibson. He is no stranger to the Wisconsin backfield, as he had a tremendous sack and forced fumble in last season’s game.

Linebacker Marcus Freeman and safeties Kurt Coleman and Anderson Russell are likely blitz candidates from the edge, which should prove effective, or at least prove disruptive.

Evridge hasn’t run as much as many people expected him to this season. However, that may change on Saturday as every yard will be valuable and the coaches won’t mind it if Evridge takes off for the sticks earlier than normal. The key for the Badgers will be to extend their drives any way they can, because the diversity of the Wisconsin offense doesn’t really exist.

The Badgers’ special teams have been very good this season. It starts with return man David Gilreath. He is averaging 31.4 yards per kickoff return and is a threat to take it home at any time. He is also the punt returner, and despite just a 6.6 yard per return average, he is also very capable of making noise here as well.

Freshman place-kicker Philip Welch has made 8-10 field goals and 13-14 extra points. He has a strong leg, as evidenced by his 52-yard field goal last week in Ann Arbor. He also handles the kickoffs, but only has one touchback in 23 attempts.

Brad Nortman is the Badger punter and he’s having a very good season. His average of 42.3 yards per punt is good for fourth-best in the conference. Of his 15 punts, six have been inside the 20-yard line and only five have been returned so far.

When Ohio State Has The Ball

Last week with quarterback Terrelle Pryor and running back Chris Wells in the backfield together, the Buckeyes had their highest rushing output since 2005. Just wait until they build a little chemistry and get their timing down.

On the season, Wisconsin is only allowing 108 yards rushing per game, but last week against Michigan’s spread attack, they allowed the Wolverines to rush for 172 yards, averaging 5.1 yards per carry. Now it should be mentioned that 92 of those yards came on two carries. However, that also tells you that Wisconsin is susceptible to the big play.

Michigan’s nearly-mobile quarterback Steven Threet picked up 58 yards on one carry on a read-option keeper. The Badgers were able to track Threet down from behind, but they’ll find no such jersey to grab when it’s Terrelle Pryor running free.

The Badgers are going to keep three linebackers in the game for the most part, and when they do, they’ll also have to match up with the Buckeyes when they go to their spread look. This will put a linebacker on a slot receiver and the Buckeyes will be able to attack that area if they like, or they will go to the read-option plays and essentially play two-on-two between Pryor and Wells and the two linebackers that are staying home. Provided the Ohio State offensive line can keep the front four at bay, this is a match-up that the Badgers cannot be looking forward to.

In last season’s game, Chris Wells rushed for 169 yards on the Badgers and killed them with the cutback. The cutback probably won’t be as available this week due to lessons learned. This should mean, however, that the linebackers won’t be as aggressive, which could give the Buckeyes the split second they need to either find a hole, or get a lineman to the second level to block. And if the Badgers are too aggressive, they will likely see Terrelle Pryor or Chris Wells run right by them.

The Buckeyes are still undergoing some changes to the offensive line and true freshman center Michael Brewster will have to play his best game as a Buckeye to date. In a hostile environment, Brewster will need to play beyond his years.

The Wisconsin front four is very, very good. They are somewhat undersized up the middle, so not only should the Buckeyes ideally have success out of the spread, but with their size advantage, you would like to think they could succeed in the power game as well.

While the defensive tackles do lack size, Mike Newkirk (6’3” 264) and Jason Chapman (6’4” 285) are very active. Newkirk is third on the team in tackles (16) and second in tackles for loss (4.5). Defensive end Matt Shaughnessy was thought to be the star of the defensive line before the season started, but he has yet to record a sack. He does have five quarterback hurries. The speed rusher for the Badgers is O’Brien Schofield who has two sacks.

The Badgers only have five sacks, so Terrelle Pryor should have time to look for his receivers. Pryor, however, is seemingly most dangerous when he has to leave the pocket. Given his youth, Pryor is a prime target for blindside blitzes, but he has shown a tremendous awareness of his surroundings. The Badgers don’t necessarily like to blitz anyway, so they may prefer to just keep everything in front of them and pick their chances carefully.

When Pryor does drop back and actually throws the ball, free safety Shane Carter will be the man for him to look for. He led the Big Ten with seven interceptions last season and already has two through four games this year. The corners are adequate, but the Buckeyes can get behind them.

Receiver Brian Robiskie appears to finally be completely healthy and is showing a burst that hasn’t really been there to this point. The Ohio State coaches are also now incorporating their younger receivers into the offense more but they may find themselves back on the sideline given the hostile environment of Camp Randall Stadium where it only takes one mistake to lose the game.

The Badgers haven’t given up much in the return game, holding punt returners to a 3.4 yard average and kick returners to a 19.7 yard average.

Receiver Ray Small is averaging 18.9 yards per punt return, so he will definitely challenge the Badgers’ stout gunners. Running back Brandon Saine is getting more active in the kick return game and while he is only averaging 19.7 yards per return, he is very due to make an impact here.

Place-kicker Ryan Pretorius has missed three of his twelve field goal attempts, all three misses have been over 40 yards. Punter A.J. Trapasso has again shown himself to be one of the top punters in the Big Ten. Overall, the special teams are solid, but rarely have they been “special” this year.

How It’ll End Up

The Buckeyes will spread the Badger defense out and they will have success running the ball. Terrelle Pryor will rush for around 80 yards and Chris Wells will top the 100 mark for the third time this season.

Pryor will again be careful with his passing so as not to cost the team field position or worse.

The Buckeyes will get after Allan Evridge and not allow him to get comfortable. Even if they aren’t blitzing him, they’ll make him think they are.

Linebackers James Laurinaitis and Ross Homan will both have double-digit tackles.

The Badger linebackers will not be outdone, as they will generate three or four very large hits which will incite the crowd.

In the end, however, it will be those same three Badger linebackers who will not be able to counter the Buckeyes’ spread attack and the one-two punch of Terrelle Pryor and Chris Wells.

But they can take solace in the fact that they weren’t the first and they won’t be the last.

Buckeyes 27 - Badgers 16

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